Donald Trump’s relationship with Ukraine has been stormy. The first impeachment against the former president occurred in 2019, when an investigation by the United States Congress concluded that the Trump administration blackmailed the Ukrainian authorities by blocking military aid to their country if they did not open an investigation into alleged corruption in Ukraine against Joe Biden and his son. Hunter. Trump has always been conciliatory with Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin was also behind a massive smear campaign that eroded Hillary Clinton’s presidential candidacy against the magnate in 2016. Trump, favorite in polls to return to the presidency and replace Biden, has insisted that, if he were elected, would end the war “in 24 hours.” The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, responded to him on Sunday for the first time: “I only need 24 minutes, no more, to explain to him that he cannot manage this war. “He cannot achieve peace and the reason is Putin.”
kyiv’s main concern on the international diplomatic board is the Republican Party. Zelensky himself stated in Washington on September 21 that “without the United States, Ukraine will lose the war.” In fact, the conservative majority in Congress blocked future allocations to Ukraine last September. In October, Republicans prioritized aid for Israel in its invasion of Gaza and again stopped Biden’s request to finance Ukraine quickly and with the largest budget to date — $60 billion. Among the Republicans there are fervent allies of kyiv, but the majority of critics consider that unconditional support is unsustainable.
“American taxpayers are getting tired of having to finance an eternal war, stalemate and in which there is no sign of victory,” said eight Republican congressmen in a letter addressed to Biden on October 31. The letter established 12 conditions that the White House must meet, above all demanding clarity in the forecasts of how the war can end: “Until your Administration does not satisfactorily comply with these conditions, the financing of Ukraine will not be considered in Congress.”
The situation is not new, but Ukraine’s inability to advance on the front and general fatigue with the war – both in Ukraine and in the rest of the world, as Zelensky has admitted – are increasing the pressure for the conflict to come to an end. . The Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmitro Kuleba, acknowledged on October 30 in a television interview his concern about the blockade in the US Congress and “about the considerable political resistance” that exists to support Ukraine, although he was sure that the Republicans They will end up providing support. Kuleba already admitted a year earlier in the digital medium Axios “the concern” that there was in his country about the Republican promise to turn off the tap made in the legislative elections of November 2022. “I think we can solve it,” the Foreign Minister said then: “People make political statements before elections and after the elections other policies follow.”
However, Republicans kept their word to “not give a blank check” to Ukraine, as Congressman Kevin McCarthy stated. Furthermore, as the presidential elections, called in November 2024, approach, the tone against kyiv will rise further. The most populist voices among the Republican primary candidates are not cut short. Vivek Ramaswamy made it clear in an interview on October 30 with journalist Piers Morgan: if he is elected president, he will achieve an agreement to end the war in which he will guarantee Russia control of the territories it has conquered, in addition to blocking Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
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Trump is the greatest exponent of populism and Republican extremism, and with the Ukrainian issue he has been no less. In an interview last July with the Fox network, the former president stated: “As you know, I get along well with Putin, and I would tell him that this must be solved, and I would tell Zelensky that it must be solved, and I would get an agreement in 24 hours. The death tolls they give us are not the truth, hundreds of thousands of people are dying.” “They ask you if you’re with Russia or Ukraine,” Trump said, “but I’m with no more people dying.”
Zelensky responded to Trump this Sunday in an interview on NBC television: “I invite Donald Trump to come here, he will be welcome, and if he comes, I will need 24 minutes, no more, to explain to him that he cannot manage this war, he cannot achieve the peace, if it is not about ceding our territory to Putin, if he is not willing to give up our independence. If so, then there is no way to manage the war.” The Ukrainian president remains firm that peace can only be negotiated if Russia abandons all occupied territories.
Trump’s chances of being re-elected as president in 2024 depend in the first instance on whether he overcomes the various court cases in which he is involved. Zelensky admitted on NBC that he doubted whether a Trump administration could be an ally of Ukraine: “I really don’t know.” Something that seems evident is a substantial change in the rhetoric of the political leadership in Kiev, which until now, in public, had shown its conviction that the two American parties would always be on the side of Ukraine to expel Russia from its territory. Zelensky entrusted himself, as he has done on other occasions, to public opinion: “Not everything depends on the presidents, on the institutions, the most important thing is the opinion of the people, of the people.” However, public opinion is also worsening: according to a Gallup poll on November 2, 41% of Americans believe that their government “does too much” for Ukraine; In June, this group represented 29% of those surveyed and in January, 28%.
The political scientist Viktor Kaspruk summarized the Ukrainian fear this Monday: “Whether the defense against Moscow continues successfully depends on Biden pushing forward in Congress with aid for Ukraine.” “And what happens from there will depend on whether Ukraine achieves more successes on the front and also on the results of the US elections,” this analyst continued on the Ukrainian digital television network. Espresso, “But unfortunately, both factors will once again be opposite.” Kaspruk was referring to the fact that, to avoid losing popularity, military aid to Ukraine will continue to be less than what is necessary to win the war.
In a similar way it was expressed last week in The Economist Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeri Zaluzhni: the front is at a standstill, and “most likely” will remain so for at least a year, because his troops do not have more and better weapons from NATO allies. Zaluzhni confirmed that foreign military support has been slow and insufficient to avoid a NATO confrontation with Russia. The Republican strategy adds even more difficulties to making progress for Ukraine in the war.
Israel, the priority
“Russia wants to put the world’s focus on Ukraine,” Zelensky added on NBC, reiterating his claim that the Kremlin is behind Hamas attacks against Israel. This speech is shared by the president and all of his trusted men. Kirilo Budanov, head of the intelligence services of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, assumed in an interview in the newspaper Pravda last October that if Israel’s war lasts more than a few weeks, “there will be problems, for sure, because Ukraine will not be the only country in need of ammunition and weapons.” Mark. F. Cancian, American colonel and expert at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, stressed in a document dated October 12 that “Israel will have priority because its relationship with the United States is closer and longer than with Ukraine.” This is the position that Republicans put forward.
As the situation in Washington becomes more complicated, more eyes are on the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, visited Kiev on Saturday to reiterate the EU’s support for Ukraine with, among other measures, a new assistance plan of 50 billion euros. Furthermore, Von der Leyen ruled out signing possible negotiations to achieve a ceasefire without meeting kyiv’s demands.
French General Jerôme Pellistrandi, a regular analyst of the war, explained last week in a telephone interview with this newspaper that now more than ever it is necessary for Europe to assume the leadership that the United States has had until now: “In the coming months, the Internal matters will become more important, and as the campaign approaches [de las presidenciales], it will be more difficult for Biden to convince public opinion that more money must be given to Ukraine. “Europe has a responsibility, and the threat is against Europe, so we must have greater leadership in the coming months.”
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