May 2024 has already proven to be a busy month for the Sun. During the first week, a series of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections created a geomagnetic storm on Earth, leaving behind a spectacle of the northern lights. Their vivid colors were observed in unusual latitudes at dawn on the 10th: in Spain they appeared from Andalusia to Catalonia, as well as in Aragon and Galicia. And also in regions even further away from the polar zone, such as the Canary Islands, the southern United States or Mexico. Since then, the eruptions continue in the same solar region.
For space weather scientists, storms are expected evidence—albeit of exaggerated intensity—that the Sun is at peak activity and they expect more to arrive. On the other hand, satellite operators and managers of electrical networks and other crucial technological infrastructures are evaluating the impacts of the event. For those who are not experts, his appearance was exciting and left impressive photographs. But also many doubts. Experts in astrophysics and space weather clarify some of the questions and what to expect in the coming months.
Why is this happening now?
The Sun is in a phase of maximum activity. Auroras appear due to the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field, and at this time in the Sun’s cycle—which lasts 11 years—the wind is strongest. “From time to time, as in all meteorology, the solar wind can cause what we call solar magnetic storms,” explains Javier Rodriguez-Pacheco, professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of Alcalá.
The immediate cause is a group of spots on the Sun, known as the active region, that is about 17 times wider than Earth. Starting on May 8, that region sent at least seven explosions toward Earth at speeds of up to 1,800 kilometers per second. In June 2023, this newspaper was already reporting a premature and intense peak in solar activity.
How big was the storm?
Although it is the already known and expected cycle, “the intensity is not usual,” explains Javier Armentia, astrophysicist and director of the Pamplona Planetarium. “It is normal for us to have solar and geomagnetic storms, but it is not common to see the northern lights like those on Friday the 10th. The storm is one of the largest ever recorded, but not only because of its intensity. Sometimes the material ejected by the Sun holds the key, so to speak, to open the highest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere,” adds Rodríguez Pacheco. NASA calls it the strongest storm to hit Earth in twenty years.
On the other hand, Consuelo Cid, who directs the National Space Weather Service, prefers not to describe it as too much or too little immensity. To put it in perspective, compare this storm with one from 2003, which according to the units used to measure intensity, was twice as strong as this May’s.
They are dangerous?
In general, no. The danger is low. However, our current dependence on space technologies may increase the risk. Geomagnetic storms cause changes in the structure of the ionosphere – the outer part of the Earth’s atmosphere – that can alter electrical networks or stations, and tele and radio communications lines, explains Armentia. Airplanes, for example, monitor when there are these storms to avoid communication failures. According to Rodríguez Pacheco, the risk is similar to what we face with other terrestrial meteorological phenomena, such as hurricanes, and depends on their intensity.
The three experts ask for calm. “You have to overcome psychosis. I am more concerned about other phenomena closer to us, such as climate change,” concludes Armentia.
Did the latest storms cause damage?
Yes, but not very catastrophic. Radio and GPS communications were weakly disrupted in areas around the world. The broadband internet connection provided by Starlink depends on more than 5,000 satellites. The company that belongs to Elon Musk’s SpaceX reported a temporary degradation in the quality of its signals. As a precaution, some satellites stopped making scientific observations, such as the X-ray Observatory Chandrafrom NASA, which put away its instruments to protect them from radiation.
NASA said May 10 that it did not foresee any threat to the four American and three Russian astronauts aboard the International Space Station. Three people are aboard the Chinese space station Tiangongand there have been no reports of precautionary measures taken there either.
How are Earth communications being protected?
After the geomagnetic storm of 1989, which caused major blackouts in Quebec, or that of 2012, which left great economic losses in China, institutions have increased efforts to improve protection against these solar phenomena. According to Armentia, two things are needed to reduce damage: prediction and prevention. “Since 2010 there has been a great technological advance that allows us to improve solar predictions. Prevention works.”
That is precisely the research area of Rodriguez-Pacheco, who is principal investigator of the Energetic Particle Detector instrument of the space mission. Solar Orbiter, from the European Space Agency (ESA) in collaboration with NASA. According to him, this international cooperation project works with instruments that look at the Sun to answer the big questions of science about the star. One of its objectives is to understand how the wind it emits influences the planets of the solar system, particularly Earth, and thus improve the prediction and prevention of these phenomena.
When will the next one happen?
It can happen at any time. Although he stays away from making predictions with exact dates, the National Space Weather Service directed by Cid, explains that right now the active region of the Sun is on the side that we cannot see, although he estimates that the next geomagnetic storm may occur in the first week of June. And he warns that they will continue to be repeated for at least two more years. At the moment, it is not possible to predict whether these storms will cause auroras.
Scientists expect the current solar cycle to reach its peak of maximum activity sometime this year, due to the number of sunspots they are observing. The most intense storms usually occur months or years after this peak.
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