The stalemate in the US Congress over funding for Ukraine worries Western governments and intelligence. The fears concern first of all the potential debilitating effect of the lack of arrival of weapons for the defense of Kiev. “There are no guarantees of success with us, but they are doomed to certain failure without us“, explains an American officer to CNN. In particular, there is fear for the counter-offensive underway in the east and south of the country, where progress has proven to be burdensome even with American war support. “If the aim is to conquer and maintain further territory – says a European diplomat – it is difficult to imagine how it could happen without the continued support of the United States”.
The impact on Europe
More generally, in Western capitals there is fear of the effect of a postponement or lack of American support for Ukraine on allies and their future choices. Kiev had to accept the blockade imposed by Hungary within the EU, even if talks will resume in January. If the United States changes its line on Ukraine – it is feared – European countries could follow.
Intelligence agencies are trying to calculate the resistance time of theUkraine in the absence of US aid and NATO. A senior US military official talks months, the worst-case scenario involves a significant setback or even one defeated by the summer. A Russian victory would not only be terrible news for Ukraine, it would be a disaster for European security and a serious blow for the United States, CNN underlines, citing the officials interviewed.
Ammunition running out
Ukrainian forces are already rationing ammunition, US and Ukrainian officials told the broadcaster, while Russian forces return fire at five to seven times greater rates of what Ukrainian forces are capable of doing. Without further US aid, Western officials believe Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles and then artillery munitions and short-range missiles such as Javelin shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
Each category of ammunition was fundamental to the defense of Ukraine, the sources underlined to CNN. Long-range missiles, such as the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, have been key to the success of repelling Russia's Black Sea fleet and opening a transport corridor for grain and other supplies. Air defense missiles have proven particularly essential in recent weeks, as Russia has expanded its attacks on civilian infrastructure this winter. The short-range missiles allowed Ukrainian forces to defend themselves from Russian tanks and aircraft.
The risks with the fall of Kiev
Assessments of what a Ukrainian defeat would mean for Europe are causing deep fears among some of America's closest European allies. “I don't think people fully realize what the fall of Ukraine would actually mean,” one European diplomat said. “We would see horrible things: ethnic cleansing and total destruction of Ukraine. Remember what they did to Bucha. So, it's already a success if we can prevent this from happening. And that's why we have to move forward.”
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