Before the ball was even launched in Germany, there were a handful of teams with a real chance of winning the trophy. Not all have impressed in their first three games, but of all the European teams in the top ten of the FIFA rankings, only Croatia have failed to make it to the knockout stages.
After witnessing the events of the group stage, Opta’s legendary supercomputer has recalculated the favourites:
Somehow, England are still favourites to win Euro 2024. Despite amassing just five points and scoring just two goals in group games against Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia, Gareth Southgate’s men have a 19.12% chance of winning the tournament. Clearly the supercomputer knows something we don’t, as it even gives a 38.2% chance of England reaching the final.
Before the tournament, France was neck and neck with England as favourites. However, after finishing second in the group with a record almost identical to that of England, Les Bleus have plummeted in the supercomputer’s estimates. They now only have a 13.26% chance of achieving glory.
France have been overtaken by tournament hosts Germany, who after two wins and a draw in the group stage are now the second favourites for the crown. Close behind are Spain, the only team to have won all three group games. La Roja, who have yet to concede a single goal, now have a 15.41% chance.
Portugal are next in line and have a 12.48% chance of repeating their Euro 2016 feat. Despite losing to Georgia in their final group game, Roberto Martinez’s men are miles ahead of sixth-seeded Netherlands, who are given a paltry 6.73% chance of claiming their second European crown.
Italy (4.46%), the reigning champions, do not have much hope of defending their title, while Belgium (2.09%) seem to have less of a chance than Austria (3.64%) and Switzerland (2.26%). The fact that Domenico Tedesco’s team will face France in the round of 16 does not seem to have helped their chances.
At the other end of the spectrum, consider Georgia. As mentioned above, they beat Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal in the group stage, yet they have a 0.13% chance of pulling off the most unlikely of upsets. With Spain in the last 16, they have only a 17.56% chance of making it to the quarter-finals on their Euro debut.
Selection |
Victory percentage |
---|---|
England |
19.2% |
Germany |
16.09% |
Spain |
15.41% |
France |
13.26% |
Portugal |
12.48% |
Netherlands |
6.73% |
Italy |
4.46% |
Austria |
3.64% |
Swiss |
2.26% |
Belgium |
2.09% |
Türkiye |
1.35% |
Denmark |
1.24% |
Romania |
0.93% |
Slovakia |
0.41% |
Slovenia |
0.40% |
Georgia |
0.13% |
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