As the 2023 MotoGP season draws to a close, only two riders remain in the running for the world title, Pecco Bagnaia and Jorge Martín. Marco Bezzecchi, third in the standings, now has a gap too large to close in just two weekends.
Although the battle has been intense since the end of the summer, Bagnaia could have the first match point to win his second world title in Sunday’s race at the Qatar Grand Prix, the penultimate round of the season scheduled for this weekend, in provided you have a favorable Sprint.
To be crowned champion in Lusail, the official Ducati rider will have to leave Qatar with a 37-point lead. With such a gap, Martín could be equal on points with Bagnaia in Valencia, but he could not become World Champion, because despite the many Sprint victories, to decide between two drivers on equal points only the number of race victories is taken into account main ones, and Martín currently has two victories less than Bagnaia.
If Pecco wins Qatar with a 37 point lead, it will inevitably mean that the Madrid driver did not win on Sunday, and therefore that the draw in Valencia will not be enough to crown him champion. Furthermore, if Martín wins the last two GPs of the season and the two riders finish the season on equal merit, the number of second places will be taken into account and Bagnaia will have more points than Martín.
To have 37 points over the Spaniard on Sunday evening, Bagnaia will have to start the long race with a lead of at least 12 points, as a victory earns 25 points. With his current lead of 14 points, he therefore needs not to lose more than two points to Martín on Saturday.
There are many possible combinations of results, but this means that if Bagnaia is ahead of Martín in the Sprint, he will inevitably have a chance to win the title the following day. On the contrary, if Martín wins the Sprint, Bagnaia’s lead will fall below 12 points (the difference between the winner and second is three points) and the title will inevitably be decided in Valencia. Martín will also postpone the fight if he does not win the Sprint, but finishes in the top seven and precedes Bagnaia by at least three positions.
Pecco Bagnaia will advance Jorge Martín in leading positions for the title in Qatar
Title options in Qatar are weak
Even in a very favorable scenario in Bagnaia on Saturday, with a victory combined with Martín’s retirement, his advantage would rise to 26 points and the following day he would still have to get 11 points more than the Pramac rider, bearing in mind that in the main race a victory it earns 12 points more than the fourth. Bagnaia will therefore have to beat Martín by several positions in each of the two races, hoping that his rival does not reach the podium on Sunday.
The reigning world champion will have to score at least 23 points more than Martín in the two races if he wants to maintain number 1 on his Ducati next season. This year, only in Portugal, on the opening day of the season, was there such a gap in favor of the Italian, who achieved 28 points more. Since then, he has never collected more than 19 points more than Martín in a single weekend, in Holland and Austria.
Bagnaia has scored this minimum 23 points 11 times in 18 weekends this year, and this is exactly the number of points he took in both Thailand and Malaysia. For his part, Martín needs to score at least 14 points to ensure he stays in the fight until Valencia, regardless of his rival’s results, which he has done 13 times in 18 weekends.
The front tire pressure variable is added to these calculations. The ranking could change again, one way or the other, after Sunday’s finish, with Bagnaia and Martín risking a three-second penalty for any further infringement.
In short
Pecco Bagnaia champion in Qatar if…
He maintains at least a 12-point lead after the Sprint and gains 23 more than Martin over the entire weekend.
The title will be played in Valencia if…
Martin wins the Sprint or finishes in the top seven on Saturday and precedes Bagnaia by at least three positions.
Martin gets on the podium in Sunday’s race.
Martin scores 14 points over the entire weekend.
#MotoGP #Match #point #Bagnaia #champion #Qatar