The AfD in the high, the traffic light in the crisis. But the strategy of CDU leader Merz bears little fruit. Two men from North Rhine-Westphalia could benefit from this: Hendrik Wüst – and his string puller Natanael Liminski.
Cologne – How do you explain the AfD’s high poll numbers? Or to put it another way: Why does the largest opposition party, the CDU/CSU, not achieve greater approval due to the apparent dissatisfaction with the ruling traffic light coalition? According to surveys, the values of the Union are growing only slightly compared to the September 2021 federal election. The AfD, on the other hand, has roughly doubled its share of the vote and is currently the second strongest political force.
This party has then reached a “critical mass”, explains Manfred Güllner, head of the survey institute “Forsa”. The AfD has already exhausted the classic right-wing radical potential of ten percent of the vote. Currently, however, the party is also available to those who are equally disappointed with government policies and the opposition. In any case, the AfD, with its increased values, is not only an integral part of news, comments and warnings. The more polyphonic the protests of a supposedly intellectual establishment, the more it is seen by some as proof of quality. This inadvertently makes the party bigger.
Is the federal government working past the population because of all the minority issues?
Friedrich Merz could turn out to be the second misjudgment by the Union Armin Laschet turn out to be the luckless chancellor candidate, Güllner puts it. Merz is unpopular as a person and is pursuing the wrong confrontation strategy. It doesn’t reach the consensus-oriented audience. But even a federal government that cares more about minorities than majorities works past the population.
For the edgy Güllner, the increase in citizen’s income, for example, has a signal character. Not only is the gap to regular wages too small. Everyone also knows about the abuse of such services. Or the debates about the minimum wage. In order to be able to assert himself as Chancellor, Olaf Scholz basically has to hope that Friedrich Merz stays, says the 81-year-old sarcastically.
In NRW, the CDU reaped what the SPD sowed in terms of dissatisfaction
In North Rhine-Westphalia however, it is different. 2017 has here the CDU harvested what the SPD sowed dissatisfaction with its state politics: a CDU, which observers considered a “scheme” that remained in an almost legendary opposition coziness. I got the wording from the Laschet biography “The Power Human” by my colleagues Tobias Blasius and Moritz Küpper, which is still worth reading. They name a man who organized the change of power in the background six years ago: Nathaniel Liminski. The “mechanic of power”, the “precision machine”. He ordered and organized the opposition, named subject areas and developed the “taillight balance sheet” of the then Prime Minister Hannelore Kraft.
Nathanael Liminski: Meanwhile one of the most influential German politicians
Since then, Liminski has enjoyed a breathtaking rise and has become one of the most influential German politicians, says Moritz Küpper. Now on the road as NRW Minister, the 37-year-old is the linchpin of the NRW state government from Hendrik Wust. He quietly signed the coalition agreement with the greens negotiated in detail, worked with diligence, dedication and conscientiousness, was a power factor in the cabinet. He had worked symbiotically with Wüst’s predecessor Laschet. Today the prime minister and he form equal power centers.
The shadow man is pushing to the light, it was said recently in the Ruhr area newspaper WAZ. Then Minister Liminski traveled to Poland. And in Ukraine he was the first Düsseldorf cabinet member. Since he is also responsible for the topic “media” and takes care of public broadcasting, you hear and read about him regularly.
► 24RHEIN guest author Peter Pauls is chairman of the Cologne Press Club. Before that, he was editor-in-chief of the daily newspaper for many years Cologne City Gazette. This article comes from the newsletter of the Cologne Press Club, which you can subscribe to here
► Nathaniel Liminski will be a guest at the Cologne Press Club on Tuesday, September 26, 2023, 7:30 p.m. and will answer questions from Peter Pauls. Location: Excelsior Hotel Ernst, Cologne. Participation possible after registration and confirmation: [email protected]
To return to the beginning of this article: The Liminski-Wüst duo could still turn the tide for the CDU/CSU in the country. Or either of them. Which would have consequences for NRW. This is reading coffee grounds now – but we will also talk about it that evening. You know Moritz Küpper from his many years of work as a board member in the Cologne Press Club or you can hear him on Deutschlandfunk. He and Tobias Blasius are still observing state politics. That’s why I’m eagerly awaiting her second book “Hendrik Wüst – The Power Transformer”. (IDZRNRW/pp)
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