Ukraine’s tanks will be met by Russian “textbook” dug defensive lines.
Russia appears to be in chaos as Ukraine’s inevitable counter-offensive approaches. Leader of the private army Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin threatens to withdraw and attack in his speech indirectly even the president Vladimir Putin against.
Russia had found only one tank for the Victory Day parade showcasing the might of the armed forces.
Something However, Russia has done frighteningly well for Ukraine. It has excavated strong fortresses in the territories it occupies for a distance of hundreds of kilometers.
“It shows that Russia is not going to give up the territories it occupies,” says the fact checker and open data expert John Helin in HS’s Ukraine studio.
Ukraine does not have just one or two obstacles to overcome. There may be four or five defensive lines, and they are defended by heavy cannon fire. Making a breakthrough can be difficult.
“It’s like straight out of the textbooks,” says Helin.
Open data scientist Pasi Paroinen published on Tuesday a detailed map based on satellite images of the defense lines of the town of Tokmak near Zaporizhia.
Five defense lines can be distinguished on the map, which form an area 25–30 kilometers deep.
The first heavier line of defense is marked in red. If Ukraine gets through it, the Russian extermination zone awaits, shown in orange on the map. It is a densely mined area in a valley that is easy for Russia to fire artillery into.
After the extermination zone, a new heavily fortified defense line awaits – and after that, another one that goes around the entire city of Tokmak.
None of the lines are meant to be easily given up, but are meant to be held on to. The more important the target, the more lines of defense are prepared to defend it.
In fortresses there are deep and wide ditches that are impossible for tanks to drive through.
Russia also uses “dragon’s teeth”, which have been widely used already in the First World War. Dragon’s teeth are dense pyramid-shaped obstacles dug into the ground.
Crossing fortifications is difficult and dismantling is slow. Ukraine must try to find the weak points of the Russian artillery and concentrate its forces on them.
A satellite image of the Crimean peninsula shows a row of “dragon’s teeth”. They can be seen right on the beach in two rows.
Last week saw two explosions over the Moscow Kremlin, which Russia claimed were Ukrainian drone strikes. The Russian presidential administration announced that it considers the attacks to be an assassination attempt by Putin, and that it will retaliate as it sees fit.
Helin does not see this as a particular threat to Ukraine. All of Russia’s means, except for nuclear weapons, are beginning to be used, and Russia’s initiative is fading.
According to Helin, the explosions last week also seemed more likely to have been staged in Russia. After a week has passed, the attack on Ukraine starts to seem more credible, according to Helin.
It would be absurd for Russia to stage such a dramatic attack on the core of power without taking advantage of it in some significant way. But Russia, for example, has not announced a new business proposal.
A screenshot of the video, which shows the alleged drone strike, provided by the news agency Reuters.
I rang according to which it would be difficult but possible for Ukrainian drones to reach the Kremlin.
In the footage, two figures can be seen on the roof of the Senate, which has been interpreted as supporting the staging of the attack.
However, men can be seen on the roof specifically at the time of the latter explosion, Helin points out. It would be perfectly natural for workers to have been sent to the roof to inspect the traces of the first explosion.
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