US elections 2024: is Trump back? What changes on the economic front
America great again, again. The United States and the world are starting to prepare for a potential, possible, for some even probable, return of Donald Trump to the White House. There is already less than a year left until the 2024 presidential elections and among Republicans there seems to be little doubt about who the candidate will be: him, Trump. Barring judicial breakthroughs, sentences or arrests, the former president appears to have few obstacles between himself and the nomination. Ron De Santis and Nikki Haley they are trying to worry him, but their possibilities appear limited. Trump’s hold on the party and on a good portion of Americans is too strong.
If the contest were to be between Trump and Biden, even here at this moment the former appears to have a clear advantage. It could be the revenge of the 2020 vote, with Biden suffering the so-called “Carter effect”, the last Democratic president not to be re-elected to a second term. But how would the United States change and how would the world change if Trump actually returned to the White House four very eventful years after the siege of Capitol Hill? Meanwhile, he would find a completely different world between war in Ukraine, new conflict in the Middle East and increased tensions with China.
But let’s start from the internal front. According to a new CBS News poll, Most Americans said they thought they would be better off financially if former President Trump is re-elected to the White House. 45% of Americans believe they would be better off financially if the former president managed to win his third bid for the White House. Another 32% said the financial situation would worsen if Trump won, while 23% said nothing would change.
President Biden fared worse than Trump when asked to talk about the economy. 48% of voters said economic conditions would be worse if Biden obtained a second mandate, while only 18% said that economic conditions would be better. Another 34% said the situation would remain unchanged.
According to the Financial Times, with Trump’s victory, regulatory tightening in the banking sector would stop. The incentives guaranteed by the law on the reduction of inflation to invest in green energy and in the modernization of the electricity grid would be in the balance. In the event of Trump’s victory and the Republicans retaking the Senate, the renewal of tax relief, whose value is estimated at 1,600 dollars for each US family.
A new level of fiscal profligacy would be foreseeable: Trump would spend and cut taxes in a potentially drastic way. This will push inflation expectations higher and bond prices lower. Obviously, the United States would adopt one more protectionist posture on the commercial front. Trump proposed one 10% tariff on all imported goods. This proposal will meet resistance at national and international levels. But there could be an easier way to achieve the objectives of this tariff, several analysts believe weaken the dollar as Richard Nixon did in his time.
US elections 2024: is Trump back? What changes on the international front
Attention also to foreign policy and the international front. Also according to the CBS News poll, 43% of voters said the chances are that the United States getting involved in a war would decrease if Trump wins next year’s election, while 39% said the odds would increase. If Biden wins the presidency in 2024, 49% of voters said the odds of the U.S. engaging in a war will increase, while another 23% said the odds will decrease under Biden’s leadership. 23% said the situation would not change if he were re-elected.
Actually, the Republicans push a lot on criticism of Biden, accused of alleged weakness that would favor the invasion of Russia and turmoil elsewhere. Trump said a few weeks ago that with him the war in Ukraine would end in a matter of hours or minutes. Certainly an exaggeration, but it would not be impossible to expect a partial thaw with the Russia. Trump has already demonstrated that he knows how to raise his voice a lot but also that he is ready at any time to meet anyone, including Kim Jong-un.
His approach to foreign policy is moreover that of a negotiator, mercantilist if you like. Trump is convinced that an agreement can be reached with anyone. Even with Kim, even with Putin. Already in his first mandate he had tried to get closer to Russia, but failed. This time he could try with greater conviction to put an end to the conflict, also so as not to have to continue the assistance to Ukraine already criticized and threatened by Republicans in Congress in recent months.
Also future relations with the China must be questioned. In this case the changes may not be as dramatic because hostility to China’s rise is bipartisan. But opposition to China would be less ideological under Trump, who is not at all concerned with these differences between autocracies and democracies. He rather prefers the former. It would just become a power contest, with Trump seeking to keep the United States first. It’s unclear how this could play out differently. Trump may try to turn Russia against China, as Nixon did with China against the Soviet Union. And abandoning Ukraine could be his bait.
The situation is different Middle East. That would perhaps be the most electric front, with Trump also likely to increase support for Israelwith the risk of a potential widening of tensions that he would try to channel towards what he has always treated as an enemy, Iran.
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