The jobs are there for the taking, more people have become self-employed and the number of bankruptcies has decreased somewhat after an earlier increase. There does not seem to be an economic dip.
The fear was that the economy would end up in a mild recession, but the figures clearly show a different picture. “Many people suffer from increased inflation and are in financial problems, but if you zoom out and look at the Netherlands, you can say that things could have been worse. Certainly also on the labor market,” says chief economist Peter Hein van Mulligen of Statistics Netherlands.
According to CBS figures, the number of jobs increased by 85,000 in the last quarter of 2022 and the counter now stands at no fewer than 11.5 million jobs. A new record. “Anyone who wants to work should be able to find a job, unless you are incapacitated for work or sick,” says Van Mulligen.
After the labor market got a little more air in the third quarter of last year, it tightened again in the fourth quarter. That is to say: the demand for people has again become slightly greater than the supply. The number of unemployed fell again by 13,000.
Vacancies
Companies did withdraw some vacancies in the fourth quarter, but the number is still substantial. At the end of December, there were 442,000 unfilled vacancies. 7000 less than at the end of the third quarter. This is the second consecutive decline after a period of eight quarters in which the number of vacancies increased.
Yet, according to Van Mulligen, that is not the writing on the wall. Because: for every 100 unemployed there were still 123 vacancies at the end of last year. It is favorable for job seekers, but for companies it is a different story.
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The tightness of the labor market makes it difficult for some companies to grow and creates a high workload for the staff, but for the time being many companies do not seem to be suffering financially.
“Companies benefit from people continuing to spend money. Such as in the hospitality industry and culture, where the aftereffect of corona still plays a role,” says Van Mulligen.
Bankruptcy figures
The latest bankruptcy figures from the statistics office also confirm that things are not going so badly. The number of business closures fell by 13 percent in a month. In January there were 228 business closures, a month earlier there were still 263. The number of business closures was on the rise in the last four months of 2022, but that tide seems to have turned for the time being.
According to Rabobank models, the number of bankruptcies should now exceed 380, based on the financial buffers and economic activity of companies.
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“The fact that the number of bankruptcies is lower than that shows that things are going a little better economically than expected,” says Rabobank economist Hugo Erken. According to him, this cannot only be deduced from the relatively low number of bankruptcies. The figures for the number of starters and stoppers also show this. There are still more starters than quitters: at the beginning of this year there were almost 80,000 more companies than at the beginning of 2022.
Based on the figures, Erken assumes that we need not expect a wave of bankruptcies in the near future, which industry organizations and experts have often warned against.
Support
According to economists Van Mulligen and Erken, the fact that things seem to be better than expected with the economic dip will partly be due to government support. In times of corona, the government managed to keep many companies afloat with its support packages. Many companies still carry around corona debts and are plagued by high energy prices and high inflation, but the government has also created support packages for companies and households in that context.
For example, the energy ceiling seems to be helping to reduce the inflation rate somewhat. “Due to this and other government policies, the economic damage will remain limited in the short term,” said Erken.
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