The October barometer from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) places the PSOE and the PP with very close voting intentions, just four tenths apart. The socialists would win a hypothetical general election with 32.6% of voting intention and the PP would receive 32.2%, according to the survey made public this Wednesday. The party led by Pedro Sánchez has reduced its support almost one point (0.8) compared to September, while the popular ones have gained half a point. The poll gives third place to Sumar (12.7%) and fourth to Vox, with 10.1% of the votes. In the last month, the team led by Yolanda Díaz has gained 0.8 points and that of Santiago Abascal has lost one point. Esquerra Republicana would achieve 1.9% of the votes and Junts would remain at 1.3%.
This is the first barometer with Pedro Sánchez as a candidate for the investiture and with the amnesty for those accused of the processes demanded by the pro-independence parties at the center of the political debate. If the supports are added, the left bloc would obtain three points ahead of the right bloc. The PSOE and Sumar would accumulate 45.3% of the voting intention, compared to the 42.3% that the PP and Vox have.
With respect to the nationalist parties, which maintain a struggle over their respective autonomies and at the same time are negotiating their support for Sánchez’s investiture, ERC (1.9%) leads Junts (1.3%) by just over half a point. , while EH-Bildu, with 0.9% of voting intention, is just one tenth above the PNV (0.8%). The rise of Bildu has already threatened the hegemony of PNV in the past municipal elections, which governs in Euskadi thanks to a pact with the socialists. In the general elections last summer there was a very even scenario between PSE-EE, PNV and EH-Bildu. A large part of the movements of the parties in the Basque Country in recent months have on the horizon their next regional elections, scheduled for summer 2024.
The field work of the survey, carried out with 4,031 interviews, took place between October 2 and 6. Two days before, the president of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, failed in his investiture debate and the King’s round of consultations began, which ended with the designation of Pedro Sánchez as the new candidate. In addition to the estimate of the vote of the different parties, the October barometer includes the assessment of the leaders of the different political formations, the Government ministers and the main problems for citizens.
As for political leaders, the socialist candidate, Pedro Sánchez, continues to be the favorite to be the president of the Government, with 29.2% support, compared to the 23.5% who would like the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will occupy La Moncloa. 9.1% of those surveyed point to Yolanda Díaz, head of Sumar’s list, and 4.5% favor Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox. Next in this classification is the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP), referred to by 3.3% of those who responded to the survey.
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Regarding the score received by the main political leaders, none of them reach the pass mark (5), a trend unchanged since June 2022. Pedro Sánchez is the most valued leader, with 4.51 points, and for the first time he surpasses Yolanda Díaz , which has been the most scored in recent years, although by very little, only two hundredths of a point. All in all, both progressive leaders drop in rating compared to the July barometer, the last one in which respondents were asked about this issue. Alberto Núñez Feijóo is hot on their heels, with 4.48 points, which improves very slightly. Much further down, Santiago Abascal practically maintains the same score as in July and only increases one hundredth (2.83).
With respect to the acting Government team, whose evaluation is measured every quarter by the CIS, the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, continues to be the most appreciated. She receives a score of 5.29 out of 10. In second position is the acting first vice president, Nadia Calviño, with a 5.21; and in third, Vice President Yolanda Díaz, with 4.77. Ione Belarra, Minister of Social Rights, and Irene Montero, Minister of Equality, receive the lowest marks, 3.46 and 3.54, respectively. Since the beginning of this year, Díaz, Belarra, Montero and Raquel Sánchez (Transports) have lowered their ratings. The rest rise, especially Miquel Iceta (Culture), Diana Morant (Science) and Calviño.
During the first days of this month, Spanish political news has continued to focus on amnesty and self-determination, claims by ERC and Junts to support the investiture of the socialist leader. Sumar, a partner in the acting coalition government, has presented the report of its jurists on the amnesty, and Sánchez has met with the political parties, except with Vox, to gather support to achieve the presidency. On September 8, thousands of people participated in a protest in Barcelona called by the anti-independence entity Societat Civil Catalana against a possible amnesty for those prosecuted by the process, and a day before, Gaza and Israel went to war.
The CIS barometer from last September placed the PSOE in the lead, with a vote estimate of 33.5%, compared to 31.7% for the Popular Party, a result that was the opposite of what the polls showed on July 23.
The October barometer of 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, which did its field work between September 29 and October 2, a few days before the one published today by the CIS, concludes that the right would be in a position to form the government that is proposed to it. escaped in the last general elections. In this survey, the PP shows an upward trend in voting intention and, together with Vox, UPN and Canarian Coalition, could achieve the 176 seats that provide the absolute majority. Complete data can be found here.
The political situation, second problem
The political situation is already the second problem for Spaniards, even above unemployment, according to the October barometer of the CIS. 30.9% of those surveyed consider it this way. Another 12.5% of those surveyed include “the bad behavior of politicians” among their main concerns. However, if you ask what problem affects them personally, the economic crisis comes first and political issues fall to third. In addition, 8.8% are concerned by the lack of agreements, unity and capacity for collaboration and the “political situation and instability.”
Among the 10 main problems that citizens spontaneously state to pollsters, four are related to politics, with this order of concern: “political problems in general”; “the bad behavior of politicians”; “the Government and the specific parties or politicians” and “the lack of agreement, unity and capacity for collaboration. Situation and political instability.” Later, “what the parties do”, “extremisms” or “nationalisms” are mentioned.
The survey shows that in the last month, concern about the economic crisis rose 1.8 points, to 37.3%, but even more (4.7 points) concern about the political situation grew, reaching 30.9%. % of mentions, its highest percentage since 2019. The third problem is unemployment, with 25.6%.
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