The Euro 2024 started with a bang: the first round of the group stage brought incessant excitement.
However, as the group stage progressed, the drawbacks of a 24-team tournament began to emerge.
The teams were aware that it was enough for them to add three or four points to advance to the round, so ball possession games against compact teams became a recurring theme. The inferior teams were understandably content with draws, and the unbalanced pre-tournament favorites have mostly struggled to penetrate the resistance.
This summer, in Germany, there have been exciting contests, and there was excitement until the last game of the group stage. However, you have to hit the reset button on the excitement. With the playoffs just around the corner, it’s time for more excitement.
The draw for the round of 16 has produced a wide variety of matchups, which should not mean that we have to endure the same dynamics of matchups over and over again. On Tuesday night in Leipzig there will be 90 minutes of chaos.
The four days of round of 16 action should be plenty of fun, and here’s how 90min ranks the eight ties purely from a predicted excitement perspective.
Slovenia has made history by entering the knockout stage of a major tournament for the first time. That’s all well and good, but it’s not particularly fun to watch.
Matjaz Kek’s side are sporting a 4-4-2 that Mike Bassett would be proud of. The Portuguese have a powerful defence and an inventive full-back, but Benjamin Sesko, the team’s star player, does not appear to be at 100%.
It will be a matter for Portugal, who impressed on Matchday 2 but otherwise failed to convince, to try to break down Slovenian resistance for 90 minutes.
England have offered possibly the three least attractive matches of the tournament to date. Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions have rarely dazzled on the big stage, and their balance and functionality have ensured their success.
However, England have so far been woefully unbalanced, with the coach trying to fit too many square pegs into round holes. There are obvious changes to the starting XI that should greatly improve performance, and fans can only hope that Southgate includes the right personnel on Sunday.
Slovakia, the most impressive team in Group E despite finishing third, have a real chance. They press high and can play through their technically competent and experienced midfield. England would kill for a player of Stanislav Lobotka’s profile.
It turns out that Mattia Zaccagni’s agonizing equalizing goal against Croatia was very important. Otherwise, the champions would be eliminated.
Italy have struggled so far this tournament, with their lack of accuracy making every game a nightmare. However, they are a solid team without the ball, and Saturday’s round of 16 tie against Switzerland looks very close.
Murat Yakin’s team has exceeded pre-tournament expectations, but remains a typical Swiss team in which the family unit continues to play key roles.
Michel Aebischer’s role on the left has been an interesting tactical novelty, while Breel Embolo is always exciting when he breaks away in transition. Xherdan Shaqiri, however, has already cashed in his “club of the tournament” of the summer.
The two could cancel each other out in Berlin.
Germany dazzled throughout the 180 minutes of Euro 2024, but were on the verge of dropping to second place in Group A. Fortunately, yesterday’s favourite number nine, Niclas Fullkrug, was on hand to equalise against Switzerland and lift the hosts back into first place.
Julian Nagelsmann’s team operates like a club team, and the former Bayern Munich coach has done an excellent job bringing in a host of superb playmakers without sacrificing width.
On Saturday night in Dortmund, it will be them who will put on the show, while Denmark will prove to be nothing more than a functional team. Christian Eriksen continues to provide a creative spark, but Rasmus Hojlund has yet to emerge as the saviour in the final third.
The Danes only scored two goals in the group stage, and will be without Morten Hjulmand, scorer of the goal against England, for this round of 16 clash.
Blue-haired full-backs, a rowdy crowd and a maverick number 10 who loves to score from distance: Romania have been a true tournament team at Euro 2024.
Most of their players are unknown, and Tottenham’s Radu Dragusin is the most notable. They are solid defensively, but can explode on the counterattack.
Holland should be wary, and even though the Dutch finished third in Group D, it would be a huge surprise.
Ronald Koeman was always going to rely on his defence after major injuries in midfield, but his side have been anything but confident in Germany this summer. The Dutch have the potential to shine in attack, with Xavi Simons, Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay each having their moment during the group stage.
France and Belgium have not been convincing in the group stage.
Didier Deschamps’ pragmatism has turned to absolute caution, with Les Bleus failing to score an open goal, save for an own goal by Austria on Matchday 1. However, they have scored more goals than any other team still in the tournament, and there is an overwhelming sense that there is still much to do for the pre-tournament favourites.
Perhaps Belgium, which has struggled to find its footing and was booed by its fans after its draw with Ukraine, could feel France’s wrath on Monday.
There will be plenty of stars on the pitch (although not in the Belgian defence), and everything points to an exciting match.
Believe it or not, these two nations already know each other. They met twice in the qualifying phase, with the Spanish victory 7-1 away and 3-1 at home. With how good they have been this summer, Sunday’s game should be very competitive.
Georgia have played two of the best games of the tournament so far. Their 3-1 defeat to Turkey on Matchday 1 was the stuff of Euro history, and their victory over Portugal, which allowed them to progress, was the biggest upset, in terms of difference in the FIFA rankings, in the history of the competition.
Willy Sagnol’s side have conceded the most goals at Euro 2024 and have certainly been lucky to get through, but their two forwards have purred and could give the imperious Spaniards something to think about.
Spain were the team of the group stage, but Georgia have been the story of the summer. There are narratives aplenty, and any game featuring Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a must-see.
Türkiye has the perfect combination for entertainment: fun but clearly flawed. Even a ten-man Czech Republic was able to break through their defense on matchday three.
Vincenzo Montella’s team is not particularly well trained, and in March they were defeated by the intensity of Austria (6-1). But they have talent, and these two groups of fans will combine to create a special atmosphere in Leipzig on Tuesday night.
Austria press superbly, rotate fluidly and combine as if it were second nature. Ralf Rangnick has the perfect group of players to put his ideals into practice, and many of them will be returning to a familiar Red Bull Arena.
Austrian precision meets Turkish vibes. Tactics against talent.
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