According to the estimates of a researcher in African affairs, speaking to Sky News Arabia, there are now two scenarios available, one of which may end in waging a proxy war in Niger, if direct military intervention fails.
And the Economic Community of West African States “ECOWAS” announced, on Friday, that it had set, at its meeting in Accra, the date for the day of military intervention to restore power to President Mohamed Bazoum, and it did not announce the date.
24 hour movements
- On Saturday, the United Nations began moving diplomatically to resolve the ongoing crisis in Niger since July 26, and the spokesman for the Secretary-General of the Organization, Stephane Dujarric, announced that the UN representative for West Africa and the Sahel, Leonardo Santos Simao, went to Niger for negotiations.
- An ECOWAS delegation arrived in Niamey, on Saturday, in an attempt to carry out a new diplomatic mediation with the army, according to what was reported by “Agence France-Presse”.
- In a statement, the US State Department announced, on Saturday, the arrival of Washington’s ambassador to Niamey, Kathleen Fitzgibbon, to accelerate reaching a political solution and maintaining constitutional order.
Support movements
On the other hand, the Nigerien capital, Niamey, witnessed, according to international media, popular and military movements from neighboring countries, in support of the coup leaders and in rejection of military intervention, as follows:
- Officers from the chiefs of staff from Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso meet in Niamey to discuss confronting military intervention and activating a joint defense strategy.
- This comes with the announcement by the Minister of Defense of Burkina Faso, Qasoum Coulibaly, his country’s readiness to confront the possible military intervention of the ECOWAS group in Niger, and announced Ouagadougou’s readiness to withdraw from the “ECOWAS”.
- The official television of Niger broadcasts pictures of warplanes, which it said were aircraft from the countries of Mali and Burkina Faso, which were deployed in Niger.
- The day after the start of the ECOWAS summit, Thursday, thousands demonstrated in front of the French base, raising slogans against “ECOWAS and France.
- The military council announces the postponement of the campaign to recruit and arm volunteers in the country for next week.
A proxy war
A political analyst residing in Senegal, Gilles Yabe, a specialist in West African affairs, commented to Sky News Arabia on these accelerating events, that the current situation of the crisis in Niger raises questions about who owns the pressure cards that can change the situation.
Yabi expects the failure of international efforts to resolve the crisis after the military council announced the formation of a transitional council and governmental and military changes in the state structure.
Regarding the coming hours, he says:
- The outbreak of a military intervention by the “ECOWAS” group, with French support, will have serious repercussions that go beyond the continent, especially in light of the rejection of countries such as Russia, China and India for any foreign military intervention, with the possibility of this military action spreading to many neighboring countries.
- The second scenario would be to continue to hint at the military option, and to follow the policy of “proxy war” by feeding the parties that reject the military council’s control with weapons and money, which could create a reality of chaos and attrition.
- In conjunction with this scenario, France and Western countries may impose an economic blockade and cut off economic aid, and this option is “the most likely.”
Niger witnessed the emergence of anti-coup movements, including the announcement by Risa Ag Bola, the minister and former leader of the Tuareg rebels in Niger, to establish the “Council of Resistance for the Republic”, with the aim of restoring constitutional order.
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