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Prime Minister Sunak’s Conservatives are facing a heavy defeat in the 2024 British election. The latest polls are disastrous.
London – The Tories have been in power in the United Kingdom for 14 years. But that will soon be over. A victory for the Conservatives in the UK election 2024 on 4 July is considered to be completely out of the question. The latest polls for the party of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak out of.
There is no way around the victory of the opposition Labour Party in the House of Commons election this time. Basically, only one question remains: how big will the Social Democrats’ victory be? Or, to put it another way: how bad will it be for the Tories? The last Polls ahead of the UK election In any case, there is no other conclusion: the Conservatives are in danger of falling into insignificance.
UK election 2024: Latest polls show clear trend
But what is the reason? Labour leader Keir Starmer is hardly a formidable opponent, many people in the United Kingdom know little about the sober human rights lawyer or the aims of the Social Democrats. No, the Conservatives themselves are to blame. “The Tories have forfeited the right to govern,” the Sunday Times. And the business paper Financial Times commented: “Great Britain needs a fresh start.”
This is likely to happen. A look at the figures from the last polls before the British election shows that that the Tories are likely to experience a real crashThis is also due to competition from Reform UK: party leader Nigel Farage, who is largely responsible for Brexit has increased the pressure on Sunak from the right with tirades against immigration and criticism of the Conservatives.
Labour | 40.0 |
Tories | 20.7 |
Reform UK | 16.2 |
Liberal Democrats | 11.1 |
Green Party | 6.0 |
Scottish National Party | 3.0 |
(Source: SkyNewsweighted average of polls, as of July 3)
Predictions on seat distribution based on the latest polls for the 2024 UK election
It should also be remembered that MPs in the UK election are elected according to the majority voting system – in contrast to Germany, where a personalized proportional representation system applies. Based on the latest polls, the forecasts for the distribution of seats in the House of Commons are much worse for the Tories than the pure percentage values.
Many forecasts put the Conservatives at around 100 seats. And Sunak himself could also make history: Based on the latest polls, it is quite possible that he will be the first incumbent Prime Minister in history to be voted out of office in his constituency. The Reform UK party is also suffering from the electoral law, and is only likely to win a few seats in the House of Commons. Overall, the forecasts for the distribution of seats after the 2024 UK election are as follows:
Labour | 432 (329 to 520) |
Tories | 109 (28 to 209) |
Liberal Democrats | 48 (16 to 91) |
Scottish National Party | 21 (0 to 54) |
Reform UK | 2 (0 to 95) |
Other | 5 (0 to 5) |
(Source: The Economistas of 3 July)
Latest polls and forecasts point to a clear outcome in the 2024 UK election
The London House of Commons has 650 seats. These are distributed among the MPs from the four regions of the United Kingdom. Each MP represents one constituency: 543 of the constituencies are in England, 57 in Scotland, 32 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.
The last parliamentary election in Great Britain took place in December 2019. With their 365 seats, the conservative Tories of former party leader Boris Johnson The party clearly won an absolute majority of 326 seats in the election. The Labour Party won 202 seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) received 48 seats and the Liberal Democrats won eleven seats. (cs/dpa/AFP)
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