Wegen der angespannten Finanzlage der Ukraine fordert die Regierung eine schnelle und unkonditionierte Freigabe jener 50 Milliarden Dollar, die die G 7 dem Land aus Zinserträgen im Westen festgesetzter russischer Vermögen bereitstellen will.
Man werde darum kämpfen, den Zugriff auf die gesamten eingefrorenen russischen Mittel und nicht nur deren Erträge zu erhalten, sagte die stellvertretende Finanzministerin Olga Zykova in einer Videokonferenz des Centre for Economic Strategy in Kiew. Die Debatte hatte an Fahrt aufgenommen, weil die Bundesregierung bilaterale Hilfen im kommenden Jahr durch diese Gelder ersetzen und den eignen Haushalt schonen will.
Deutschland ist laut dem vom Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel erstellten Ukraine-Support-Tracker nach den USA der zweitgrößte Geldgeber der Ukraine. Bis Mitte 2024 hat Berlin Kiew demnach seit dem Überfall Russlands im Februar 2022 mit 14,7 Milliarden Euro unterstützt. Wegen des Kriegs und der Folgeschäden, die die Wirtschaft des Landes schwer erschüttert haben, fehlt es überall an Geld.
Loch von 15 Milliarden Dollar
Laut Zykova flossen in diesem Jahr bisher 24,5 Milliarden Dollar westlicher Hilfen in den Staatshaushalt, der damit bis Juli zu 52 Prozent von den Zuweisungen finanziert wurde. Weitere 13,5 Milliarden Dollar seien bis zum Jahresende zugesagt. Doch da der Krieg vermutlich bis dahin nicht ende, dauerten die Geldnöte an. Für den Haushalt 2025 erwartet Kiew eine budgetäre Unterstützung in Höhe von 35 Milliarden Dollar. Doch da klafft nach aktuellen Berechnungen der Kiewer Ökonomen ein Loch von 15 Milliarden Dollar.
Deputy Finance Minister Zykova wants to close the gap with the interest income from the blocked Russian funds. EU and G7 states are said to want to clarify the complicated legal matter by the end of the year. Kiev thinks that is taking too long. She hopes for a quick clarification, if possible by September, when the IMF will review the current financial aid, said Zykova. She made it clear several times that Kiev wants to decide for itself how these funds should be used: for the military, as general budget support, in social projects or for the rapid reconstruction of the infrastructure destroyed by the war.
In September, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) routinely reviews its aid programs for Ukraine. Compliance with the criteria agreed there is also important for other donors. The IMF representative in Ukraine, Gavin Gray, alluded to this when he mentioned the ongoing debt restructuring negotiations between Kiev and private creditors, which are intended to relieve Ukraine of $11.4 billion over the next three years. One consequence of the July deal is that rating agencies have now withdrawn all creditworthiness from the country.
Tax increases demanded
The International Monetary Fund is demanding that the government in Kiev be more committed to strengthening the financial base through tax increases. This is one of the key issues for sustainable budget financing, said Gray. He praises the tax reform package sent by the government to parliament.
He said he was aware of the concerns and protests of the business community, but that the consolidation of the 2025 budget would only be possible with higher revenues generated in Ukraine: “If tax revenues are to increase, then tax increases will be unavoidable.” Gray said international financial aid, debt restructuring and tax increases are inextricably linked.
Ukraine’s national debt is currently estimated to be 94 percent of gross domestic product. In order to contain this rate, Kiev increased some taxes, so that the revenues from these taxes in June were 50 percent higher than the previous year’s level. Among other things, it imposed a 50 percent profit tax on banks, and income from VAT and dividends from state-owned companies also increased.
The economic situation is tense, also due to disruptions in the energy supply. Growth is estimated at around 3.5 percent in 2024, and inflation at 8.5 percent. Companies’ expectations have brightened, but are below the long-term average. The agricultural sector, which is important for exports, is likely to perform somewhat worse in 2024, but the export corridor through the Black Sea established by Kyiv and safe from Russian attacks ensures the survival of the industry.
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