08/26/2024 – 17:39
The Ibovespa began the week as it closed the previous one, on the rise, following the increase in tensions in the Middle East, Israel and southern Lebanon on Monday, the 26th, which gave a 3% boost to oil prices in the session, in London and New York. On the B3, Petrobras (ON +8.96%, PN +7.26%) held the positive end of the Ibovespa.
At the close, the index showed an increase of 0.94%, to 136,888.71 points, having come close to the historical record during the session, reaching 137,013.05 at its best moment, close to the 137,039.54 points of the intraday of last Wednesday, 21st. For the close, this Monday’s mark corresponds to a new historical maximum.
The turnover was R$20.6 billion this Monday. In the month, the Ibovespa rose 7.24%, on track for its best performance since November 2023, when it advanced 12.54%. The index is also on track for its third consecutive monthly gain, putting the year’s high, so far, at 2.01%.
At the top of the Ibovespa, in addition to Petrobras, highlights include São Martinho (+3.58%) and Natura (+2.33%). On the opposite side, CVC (-8.00%), Rumo (-2.92%) and Minerva (-2.14%).
Vale ON closed up 1.13%, which, combined with the strong advance of Petrobras, more than offset the closing of the large banks, in a negative trend in the session with the exception of BB (ON +0.39%) and Itaú (PN +0.22%) at the close.
“The start of the week was mixed for risk assets abroad, with few new indicators available in the session, in which the speeches made by the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the end of last week were still being assimilated”, says Rodrigo Ashikawa, economist at Principal Claritas, referring to the process of monetary easing in the United States, which is set to begin at the next meeting of the monetary policy committee (FOMC), in September, although there is currently no clarity as to the pace at which the adjustment will be implemented.
In New York, while the Dow Jones closed the day slightly higher by 0.16%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.32% and 0.85%, respectively.
“Today’s movement on the Ibovespa was heavily influenced by Petrobras and Vale, following the rise in oil and iron ore,” at the start of the week, adds the economist. In Dalian, China, the main iron ore futures contract rose 3.45% to US$105.33 per ton, while in Singapore, the increase reached 4.31%, which brought the ton back to the US$100 per ton mark, after 12 sessions below that threshold.
“In Brazil, there are important developments on the week’s agenda, such as the preview of the official inflation for August, tomorrow, with the IPCA-15, and the expectation for the submission to Congress of the 2025 PLOA, the budget bill for next year, by the end of the week”, adds Ashikawa.
On the foreign agenda, Wednesday’s highlights include quarterly figures from Nvidia, an important benchmark for the technology sector in the United States, and Friday’s highlights include the PCE index, a consumer inflation metric closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, notes Hemelin Mendonça, partner at AVG Capital.
“Today’s Brent recovery was really the decisive factor in the Ibovespa getting closer to its all-time high during the session, with the boost given to Petrobras shares, which have a significant weight in the index,” says Wagner Varejão, a specialist at Valor Investimentos. “Global fears about recession have been left behind,” compared to what was seen at the beginning of the month, which supports the recovery in the prices of commodities such as oil and iron ore, the analyst notes. He also highlights the relative accommodation of the exchange rate, which contributed to the Ibovespa’s advance. On Monday, the spot dollar remained below R$5.50, at R$5.4928, up 0.24% at the close of the session.
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