France will go to the polls Sunday 30 June with runoffs scheduled for 7 Julyfor the early legislative elections called by President Emmanuel Macron, following the electoral defeat in the European elections to Marine Le Pen.
Members of the French parliament are not elected on the basis of proportional representation, but through a two-round vote in 577 constituencies where local dynamics play an important role. In each constituency, if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates advance to the second round, as do any other candidates who have won the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate with the most votes in the second round wins the seat as a member of parliament.
To get through the first round, parties that share a political vision, such as the country’s four main left-wing parties, tend to come together and agree not to pit candidates against each other. Voter turnout matters. In 2022, when turnout was close to 50%, parties needed to win about a quarter of the votes cast to reach 12.5% of registered voters. Voter turnout is expected to be higher in this election, which will make it easier for candidates to advance to the second vote.
Who are the 4 main parties competing?
The four main political groups that will compete, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), Ensemble, Les Républicains (LR) and Rassemblement National (RN), have therefore had to go to the essentials. The result is synthetic programs, which reflect the priorities and main directions of each formation. That is, social and environmental measures for the Nouveau Front Populaire, continuity and employment for Ensemble, security and immigration for the Rassemblement National.
Candidate for prime minister for the RN, Jordan Bardella summarized the far-right party’s program in five main points: greater purchasing power, greater security, crackdown on immigration, focus on the economy and work, taxation and management of public accounts.
Surveys
At the moment, the Rassemblement national (RN) and some of its centre-right allies have around 36% supportwhile the left-wing group New Popular Front is at 29% and Macron’s liberals have around 21%.
In a month the head of the Elysée lost six points of popularity in a month, reaching 36%, the lowest level since last March, while the president of the Rassemblement national (RN) Jordan Bardella has become the political exponent whose French people trust them more, with 40% popularity. This is what a survey conducted by Toluna-Harris-LCI reports.
The confidence that the French place in Prime Minister Gabriel Attal remains stable at 43%. The ministers are also stable: the most popular among them, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, gains two points and stands at 35%.
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