Wednesday, May 22, 2024, 12:04
Every geopolitical power, whether global or regional, weaves a network of allies that serve its interests. The most valuable are always those who are part of a rival block. In the case of Russia, having countries belonging to NATO and the European Union on its side is key, especially because it facilitates the task of provoking internal divisions that prevent a united opposition. Therein lies the great value that for Vladimir Putin there are relationships such as, for example, the one that unites him with Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, one of those who introduces the most discordant notes in the Western bloc.
And there is nothing better than extending the division of political leaders to the heart of society itself. It is the first of Destabilization. All of this can be further encouraged by weaving a network of clientelistic relationships with related political parties and, especially in the Slavic world, with the oligarchs in power. Let’s add hoaxes and misinformation and we already have a solid campaign. But, as seen with the attempted assassination of the Slovak Prime Minister, the pro-Russian Robert Fico, this game can lead to violence.
Now that the invasion of Ukraine enters a new (and worrying) phase with the reopening of the Kharkiv front, which stretches the country’s military resources to the limit, we focus on Russia’s other invasions – physical or not – on the European continent. .
These are the three topics we will touch on today.
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Slovakia, Hungary and Russian interference in the West.
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The other occupied country: Georgia.
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Transnistria wants to be Russia.
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Sleeping with the enemy
Slovakia, Hungary and Russian interference in the West
Although it seems to have been one of the main motivations of his attacker, it is risky to draw a relationship between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the attempted assassination of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. But that he maintains a position close to the interests of the Kremlin – and opposed to that of the country’s president, Zuzana Caputová – has been more than proven. Not in vain, in January he stated that Volodymyr Zelensky should cede part of his territory to Russia in exchange for peace.
«What is expected, that [los rusos] leave Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk? “That’s not realistic,” he declared on television shortly after returning to office with an election program in which he promised to end arms shipments to Ukraine, block kyiv’s access to NATO, and oppose sanctions against Russia. “Ukraine is not an independent and sovereign country, because it is controlled by the United States,” he stated. A few days ago, Ione Belarra gave a speech along similar lines, blaming many for the war – not invasion – in Ukraine, but not Putin.
“At Podemos we are firmly against committing indefinite military support to a suicidal war that has left hundreds of thousands dead in Ukraine.
“We must commit to a serious negotiating table and bet on diplomacy.”
🎥 @ionebelarra pic.twitter.com/tpN6ZMGiFN
— We can (@PODEMOS) May 17, 2024
To understand who Fico is and how the Slavic world works, there is nothing better than watching the documentary ‘The Murder of a Journalist’, by Matt Sarnecki (available on Filmin). Beginning with the brutal murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his partner, the film unravels the web of corruption woven hand in hand between the oligarchs and the Authorities, under whose command Fico was. Precisely, it was that crime that brought Slovakia to the streets and that, finally, forced him to resign in 2018.
![Geopolitical cracks are opening in the European Parliament.](https://s3.ppllstatics.com/rc/www/multimedia/2024/05/22/europarl%20efe-kzLD--748x524@RC.jpg)
Geopolitical cracks are opening in the European Parliament.
EFE
Now Fico returns to lead the country and opens a pro-Russian rift in the EU with the Hungarian Viktor Orbán, another leader involved in different scandals and considered the most authoritarian in the Union. Geographic and sociocultural proximity, the latter understood as adherence to traditional values and an economic oligarchy, makes it easier for Putin to infiltrate eastern countries. His conservative ideology gains followers among right-wing parties, while he wins the favor of those on the left with his speech against American imperialism and the erroneous idea that Russia still has something communist.
This explains why Putin is a respected figure in far-right parties like Vox and that, in turn, he draws applause among out-of-night Podemos militants decked out with the hammer and sickle. But the Russian president has a harder time convincing outside of these radicalisms in the most progressive countries with a greater democratic tradition in the west and center of the continent. For them he prepares disinformation campaigns that are deployed especially on social networks. And perhaps now we will see them more clearly in view of the European elections on the 9th.
![Viktor Orbán, Putin's Trojan horse in Europe.](https://s1.ppllstatics.com/rc/www/multimedia/2024/05/22/orban%20y%20putin%20sputnik-kzLD--748x524@RC.jpg)
Viktor Orbán, Putin’s Trojan horse in Europe.
Sputnik
Already in April, the European Commission opened an investigation to detect these schemes, often directed through fake media outlets such as Voice of Europe, which the intelligence agencies of Poland and the Czech Republic consider a vehicle financed by Moscow that serves to prop up the Russian narrative and channel funds to like-minded politicians. “The investigation shows that Russia has approached members of the European Parliament and paid them to promote its agenda within the institution,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo.
The German far-right party AfD is also in the target. Specifically, his deputy Maximilian Krah was questioned on suspicion that he received money from Russian agents while his assistant was arrested on April 23 for supposedly spying for China, another of the countries that deploy a similar tactic in the West.
![Bombs fall again in Kharkiv.](https://s2.ppllstatics.com/rc/www/multimedia/2024/05/22/jarkiv%20afp-kzLD--748x524@RC.jpg)
Bombs fall again in Kharkiv.
AFP
As usual, authoritarian powers use the rights and freedoms that they deny to their citizens to interfere in the internal affairs of States that do protect them. While they prevent a different narrative from reaching their subjects with their strict censorship, and imprison or kill the most rebellious, they use the democratic values of their rivals to weaken them by spreading their propaganda and influence.
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A more discreet invasion
The other occupied country: Georgia
In his justification for the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin blames NATO for having gotten too close to his territory, although he promised not to do so. According to his narrative, after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the West assured that the Atlantic Alliance would not extend eastward. What is not said is that this verbal agreement materialized when the Soviet Union still existed, in 1990, and that in September of that year it was agreed that NATO could establish troops beyond the Iron Curtain. The fall of the USSR completely changed the security landscape and it was the resulting independent countries who freely decided to join the Alliance, precisely out of fear of the Russian imperialism that they had already suffered.
![Budapest Memorandum, wet paper.](https://s2.ppllstatics.com/rc/www/multimedia/2024/05/22/Captura%20de%20pantalla%20(176)-kzLD--650x455@RC.png)
Budapest Memorandum, wet paper.
What there is a written agreement about, already with Russia as an independent Federation, is the Budapest Memorandum. And in this agreement that Moscow signed with kyiv, the United Kingdom and the United States, Russia committed to “respect the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine, delimited by the existing borders” (in 1994, including Crimea and Donbas) in exchange for Ukraine signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty and renounced the enormous nuclear arsenal inherited from Soviet times. Furthermore, the memorandum obliged the United States to intervene if these terms were violated.
![Text of the Budapest memorandum, torn by Russia](https://s2.ppllstatics.com/rc/www/multimedia/2024/05/22/Captura%20de%20pantalla%20(177)-kzLD--650x700@RC.png)
Text of the Budapest memorandum, torn by Russia
Moscow broke that pact in 2014 when it annexed Crimea, and the West did not act. Furthermore, the Russian president had already launched a similar operation before: it was in 2008 and Georgia suffered it. Even today, 20% of its territory is occupied by Russian forces. It is that of the republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose independence Moscow recognizes.
This strategy has also been seen in Ukraine, with the self-proclaimed popular republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Moscow recognized its independence on February 21, 2022, three days before the total invasion of Ukraine, after having encouraged separatist movements within it for years. It was a good excuse for the ‘special military operation’, which culminated in the annexation of those two republics – and two other Ukrainian areas – by the Russian Federation in October of that year.
Soldiers of the self-proclaimed Republic of Abkhazia.
AFP
In short: Russia fuels separatist movements, recognizes them when they explode, and then annexes those territories. So far, it has happened in areas bordering Russia, but the European Parliament even called for an investigation into alleged ties between the Kremlin and the Catalan independence movement. Would Moscow have recognized Carles Puigdemont’s republic?
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Next stop
Transnistria wants to be Russia
This is what Transnistria now wants to achieve, the Moldovan region that has remained in legal limbo since it decided to separate from Moldova, just after the fall of the Soviet Union. Although no one recognizes its sovereignty, Russia maintains some 1,500 troops stationed there. “Protecting the interests of the Transnistrians, our compatriots, is one of our priorities,” said the Russian Foreign Ministry. Meanwhile, Moldova has already started the process to enter the EU, something that could culminate without Transnistria.
![Transnistria remains anchored in the Soviet Union.](https://s1.ppllstatics.com/rc/www/multimedia/2024/05/22/transnistria%20afp-kzLD--748x524@RC.jpg)
Transnistria remains anchored in the Soviet Union.
AFP
At this juncture, the region’s leaders have asked Putin to protect them from the growing pressure exerted by Moldova, a pressure that Chisinau denies. They do not request accession to Russia – although it was the option supported by 98% of the population in a referendum held in 2006 – but that is something that different Moldovan politicians hope will happen soon. For now, Moscow has simplified the process for Transnistrians to access Russian nationality. From there to integrating the region with the excuse that a considerable Russian population resides within it – there are already 220,000 inhabitants – it is only one step. But hey, imperialism is just an American evil.
Is all for today. I hope I have explained well some of what is happening out there. If you are signed up, you will receive this newsletter every Wednesday in your email. And, if you like it, it will be very helpful if you share it and recommend it to your friends.
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