Felipe VI resumes his official travel agenda, and does so with a visit, from Sunday to Tuesday, to the three Baltic republics: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. In the midst of Russian escalation in Ukraine – where all experts warn of an intense summer offensive by Vladimir Putin’s Army – and when the hangover from the rise of the extreme right in the European elections still lasts, the King begins a tour three days to show Spain’s support for these ex-Soviet republics and in which he will also take time to visit the Spanish troops deployed on this eastern flank of NATO. “These countries are considered very vulnerable to Russia. (…) And all solidarity with them is important and they appreciate it,” explains international Security and Defense expert Félix Arteaga.
Europe is in a “pre-war situation,” continues the expert on the phone. It is “the most dangerous situation after the Second World War,” said the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles, a few days ago during an event with a dozen female ambassadors in Madrid. A harsh message that is heard increasingly louder in the capitals of the 27. And the Baltics is a most active region in this context, in which Russia represents a real almost daily threat through its hybrid war: sabotage, border changes, cyber attacks and the spread of fake news.
Since Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula ten years ago, the three republics were on guard against the threat from neighboring Russia, alerting the European Union and NATO, organizations of which they are part, of what could come. . Thus, in February 2022, Moscow gave the order to continue its expansionism towards the West and invade Ukraine. “They were scared. There was a risk that the Russians would enter there until they reached the Baltic Sea,” the expert argues. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (plus Poland) began to gain importance in Brussels and their voice is heard now more than ever. So much so, that the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, appears in all the pools to be the new High Representative of community diplomacy. If confirmed, Brussels would therefore be sending a clear warning message to Moscow.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are three countries that strictly comply with the commitment of NATO member countries to contribute 2% of GDP to the Alliance, something that Spain does not come close to, placing itself at the bottom of its allies with a contribution of only 1.28% of their wealth. However, these republics, with a population that barely reaches five million inhabitants as a whole, “barely have an Army (…) and their aviation has no combat capacity,” explains Arteaga. That is why Spain has been sending troops to this area for years, which have now become permanent, which is a “new thing,” explains Arteaga on the phone, adding that “the background [de la presencia del Rey] It’s not so much about highlighting what we do [el Ejército de España]which also, but to show solidarity” with these countries.
Felipe VI will visit, in addition to the usual places in an official visit – Parliament, Head of State, floral offering to the fallen -, the amphibious ship of the Navy Juan Carlos I, which after carrying out deterrence exercises in the Mediterranean is now located in front of Tallinn (Estonia); the Adazi military base (Latvia), where Spain has a presence within the framework of NATO; and the Siauliai air base (Lithuania), to get up close and personal with the Spanish contingent that has been part of the Baltic Police mission of the Atlantic Alliance for a decade. With this visit, Spain “justifies that it has complied with NATO by showing that it also gives importance to this area, and that it is not only concerned about the South [en referencia al Sahel]”, reveals the expert.
Spain has had a presence in the Baltic for years as a NATO border line, but the war in Ukraine has raised swords and, according to Arteaga, there is a need for the deployed forces that are going to receive the presence of its commander in chief (the King) by land, sea and air are at a “very high” operational level at this time when everything indicates that Russia is rearming and regaining positions in the face of a major summer offensive, according to information from many analysts who are given complete credibility by a top-level community source. “The Russian threat is feasible. “Nor did one believe that Russia was going to do what it has done,” says Arteaga, PhD in International Relations and member of the Elcano Royal Institute network, in reference to the invasion of Ukraine two years ago.
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Offerings, flowers and dinners
The official trip will begin on Sunday in Tallinn, the Estonian capital. There he will meet with the president of the small Baltic country, Alar Karis. Then he will go to Riigikogu (Parliament), a small building that crowns a hill in the center of the city. In the afternoon, the King will embark on the Juan Carlos I, the flagship of the Navy, which continues its Daedalus24 exercises in the waters of the Baltic Sea in its common strategy of deterrence against Russia. The week will end for Felipe VI – who on Wednesday celebrated in style the tenth anniversary of his proclamation as head of state – with a dinner at the Estonian Presidential Palace, as reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
On Monday, the King will head first to Lithuania, where he will meet, as is pertinent in an official visit, with the president of that country, Gitanas Nauseda. Later he will attend the wreath laying at the memorial for those who fell for independence (from Russia, precisely) at the Antakalnis cemetery, in the east of the center of Vilnius, the country’s capital. He will also take a tour of the Seimas (Parliament). The afternoon is reserved for the visit to the Siauliai Air Base, (in the north of the country), where there will be a meeting with the Spanish detachment (about 150 people) that participates in the Baltic Air Police (BAP) mission of the NATO, which since 2004 has been in charge of monitoring the skies of the three former Soviet republics. “There is constant invasion of airspace and our planes [del Ejército de España]”The fighters go out to intercept every now and then,” adds Arteaga. And the aviation of the three Baltic countries “does not have combat capacity,” he continues.
And finally, Latvia, the country with a huge Russian-speaking population (about 25%). Here he will also hold meetings with the president, Edgars Rinkevics, and attend the wreath laying at the Freedom Monument in Riga. Right there, Felipe VI will meet with the Prime Minister, Evika Silina, and visit the Saeima (Parliament). In addition, the King will visit the Museum of the Occupation – of Russia first, of Nazi Germany and of the USSR later – as many high-level leaders who visit this country do. That same Tuesday, before returning to Spain, Felipe VI will meet with the Spanish contingent at the Adazi military base (north of the capital), within the NATO mission Reinforced Forward Presence (eFP, in its acronym in English). ) in which Spain has 650 troops. It is a very important land force, almost like the one it has in Lebanon, Arteaga illustrates. In short, “they are units prepared for whatever comes their way,” concludes the expert.
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