In the middle of a semi-paralyzed country, due to the worst energy crisis that it faces in the last 30 years and with all the political impact of the diplomatic crisis with Mexicotoday 13.6 million Ecuadorians will go to the polls again to vote on a referendum of 11 questions posed by the president, Daniel Noboamost related to reforms to confront the drug violence that plagues the country.
(Read here: Ecuador declares a state of emergency for 60 days due to the serious energy crisis).
Noboa, who is even flirting with re-election, takes the victory of Yes for granted, despite the fact that the arrival of the blackouts caused nervousness in the government, which was forced to decree an emergency and energy rationing of eight hours a day throughout the country. country and on Friday a state of exception to prevent possible acts of sabotage against the energy infrastructure of the country.
A prisoner votes early in the anti-mafia referendum scheduled for tomorrow in Ecuador.
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According to the Secretary of Communication, Roberto Izurieta, as part of a sabotage of the electrical system, the Mazar reservoir – the second most important in the country – was “emptied” and intentionally “the floodgates were opened to let the water flow.” The assertion has been described as an “absurd lie.” and confronted by technicians, since it is impossible to release millions of cubic meters of water in just 12 hours, as has been suggested.
The truth is that the popular consultation comes at a difficult time for the nation. In January, an attack by illegal organizations left around twenty dead and led Noboa to declare an internal armed conflict. The military settled inside the prisons and deployed operations in the streets to stop the violence, which in 2023 left a record rate of 43 homicides for every 100,000 inhabitants, according to official data. In 2018 this figure was six violent deaths.
For this reason, Ecuadorians are called to say Yes or No to the increase in penalties for crimes of terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering and hitmenamong others, or that weapons seized from criminals are used by the National Police and the Armed Forces, or that assets of illicit or unjustified origin pass into the hands of the State.
Ecuadorians will also be asked today if they agree with the country recognizing the international arbitration as a method to resolve investment, contractual or commercial disputes; or if they approve labor reforms to allow fixed-term and hourly work.
The president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa.
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A plebiscite for his management?
The pollster Cedata, in a poll conducted between April 8 and 11, predicts that 55 percent of Ecuadorians will vote in favor of toughening laws against drug trafficking. For its part, the firm Communicatea indicates that 43 percent of the population supports, but that those who are undecided reach 28 percent.
Nathaly Pernett, activist and lawyer, agrees that a large part of Ecuadorians have only just found out that there is a consultation, although she describes the questions as “transcendent and interesting” that will undoubtedly become “acceptance and drag” of the president's popularity. In addition to agreeing with this analysis, Karen Sichel, former legal advisor to the Lasso Presidency, considers that the result will help Ecuadorians to cast their vote to support the actions that the Government has carried out. “We are not going to vote for 11 questions, but for 12: whether we want Noboa to be impeached or not. If he loses the consultation, the Citizen Revolution (correismo) will call him to impeachment for the kidnapping of former vice president Jorge Glas,” she warns.
In the opinion of Ramiro Ávila Santamaría, what we have is pure official propaganda, with the tone of “if you do not agree with the government you are a bastard” and under the threat that, if we say No, the government will not have tools to combat organized crime,” he noted in his column.
Other analyses, such as that of the political scientist Alfredo Espinosaconsiders the consultation unnecessary because the majority of the proposed issues could be processed in the National Assembly and in the end, even if they have citizen approval, they must be submitted to debate and legislative approval.
In his opinion, the call shows, as real objectives, to fulfill a campaign offer and use it as a political platform for his re-election.
Professor Franklin Ramírez, in dialogue with this newspaper, agrees that the consultation was not necessary and suggests that the risk, if the Yes vote is won, will be the reinforcement of the arbitrariness and arrogance of the president who, after having won the presidency with a non-confrontational speech, “Today he speaks a language of war.”
An Ecuadorian citizen checks an electricity meter in Quito.
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It should be remembered that Glas' detention was declared illegal and arbitrary by a court of the National Court of Justice of Ecuador, which decided to keep him in prison due to the eight-year prison sentence that he had not finished serving when he was released from prison at the end of 2022 thanks to a controversial judicial resolution of precautionary measures. Noboa, meanwhile, affirms that he has “zero regrets” for the raid on the legation, which cost the country a lawsuit before the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Ramírez insists that the official victory in the consultation “will reinforce despotic attitudes because it is increasingly perceived that the declaration of internal war is not working to reduce the large numbers of crime and insecurity and is expressed in problems related to the economic recession. and the provision of energy.”
For his part, political scientist Santiago Basabe, from the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (Flacso), notes that “there are perceptions that the diplomatic crisis with Mexico has not generated negative effects (on Noboa within the country). On the contrary, people are endorsing the decisions he has made on the issue of security,” he told the AFP agency.
In short, for several of the analysts consulted, the referendum is seen as an attempt by Noboa to pave his way to re-election.
ANA LUCÍA ROMÁN – FOR TIME – QUITO
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