Press
Russia’s president seems to be banking on a protracted war. Ukrainian troops, but also the West, should be able to counter Putin’s strategy.
Moscow – In June, Russia’s President Wladimir Putin gave an insight into his supposed strategy in the Ukraine war. At the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, the Kremlin chief said that Russia does not plan to achieve its military goals quickly. Rather, Putin in his “victory theory” to want to bet on a protracted war.
According to a report by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian president indicated that War in Ukraine to proceed “step by step” and to prolong the war. According to the ISW analysis, Putin’s plan and confidence in his intentions are, among other things, a result of delayed support for Ukraine from the West. In order to counter Putin’s “victory theory”, the institute sees a need for action – by the Ukrainian troops, but also by the Western states.
Putin could expand Russia’s conquest goals without a Ukrainian counteroffensive
A protracted war could Putin’s calculations to bring large parts of Ukraine under Russian controlMost recently, the Kremlin chief demanded that Ukraine cede the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia. Ukraine rejected Putin’s alleged peace offer as an “ultimatum”. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called Putin’s statements “absurd”.
So far, Russia has only occupied parts of the Ukrainian territories, the entire cession of which Putin demanded in his “offer”. According to ISW, Moscow, in the event of a protracted war, would be able to achieve its conquest goals However, it could still expand. In order to counter Putin’s strategy, “meaningful counter-offensives” are needed. Ukraine must also stop the Russian advances on Ukrainian territory.
Putin is playing for time in the Ukraine war: According to ISW, the West must support Ukraine in counter-offensives
Western supporters should quickly provide Ukraine with support for counter-offensives. According to ISW Putin’s strategy be questioned and the prolongation of the war possibly prevented.
Western support of “crucial importance” to undermine Putin’s strategy
By supporting Ukraine in counter-offensives, the West could “undermine Putin’s assumptions about what Russia can achieve in Ukraine by force,” the ISW report says. Western support is therefore “crucial.”
Lieutenant General on Ukrainian counteroffensive – “Resources deteriorated”
The fact that resources are crucial for Ukrainian counter-offensives was also stressed by retired Ukrainian Lieutenant General Romanenko in February to daily NewsRomanenko explained: “The war has become a war of position. This is primarily because the situation regarding resources has worsened for Ukraine. We were forced to switch to strategic defense.”
Selenskyj urges rapid arms deliveries – “urgently needed on the battlefield”
According to observers, Russia is trying to “exploit advantages in troop strength and weapons before the Ukrainian military is upgraded by the West,” according to a daily News-Report from the end of June. In a EUSummit in Brussels, the Ukrainian President also urged Volodymyr Zelensky again on rapid arms deliveries. The military equipment that Western backers have promised Ukraine is “urgently needed on the battlefield.”
In an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer Zelensky said that the hesitation of Western states to support Ukraine had encouraged the Kremlin to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible. Like the ISW, the Ukrainian president also came to the conclusion in the interview that every Russian move strengthens Putin’s negotiating position. (pav)
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