lhe opposition and the ruling party in Venezuela have spent the last few years establishing dialogues and signing agreements to try to bring political stability to the country. However, the effects are not yet seen. With just over a month left until the elections presidential elections on July 28eight of the ten presidential candidates signed a new official document in which they commit to recognizing the electoral results.
According to the criteria of
This pact was promoted by the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Psuv) – which seeks the re-election of Nicolás Maduro – and accepted by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which has a Chavista majority. But María Corina Machado’s standard bearer, Edmundo González, and the candidate Enrique Marquez They did not attend the signing and rejected any new agreement promoted by Chavismo. Both affirm that the Barbados Agreement – signed on October 17, 2023 by the ruling party and the opposition – already included recognition of the results at the polls.
This agreement puts highly nationalist elements on the table, such as, for example, the demand for the lifting of sanctions on the nation. This may lead to criminal action against those candidates who allegedly requested sanctions, in accordance with the Executive’s vision.
“We and Venezuela signed the Barbados Agreement. That is the document that contains all the clauses including those that propose recognition of the electoral results. We see no reason to sign something new,” Edmundo González told EL TIEMPO a day before the signing, which took place last Thursday.
Now, analysts predict that Chavismo, through the CNE, could continue its drift against the opposition and plunge the electoral process in Venezuela even further into uncertainty.
However, for Chavismo, the guidelines of the new commitment are “in line with the provisions of the Barbados and Caracas agreements,” according to the final text released by the CNE. And Maduro himself emphasized that “whatever the electoral referee says, amen.” “Enough sabotage against our country. Enough conspiracies. “Venezuela wants tranquility,” said the Chavista leader, raising his tone against those who did not sign the pact.
Along with Maduro, other opposition candidates also signed, but they are questioned and accused of being collaborators with Chavismo in the shadows. Among them are Antonio Ecarri, Luis Eduardo Martínez, José Brito, Daniel Ceballos, Javier Bertucci, Benjamín Rausseo and Claudio Fermín.
What is the ruling party looking for with the signing of this new document?
According to the president of the CNE, Elvis Amoroso, who was Control when Machado’s disqualification was promoted, Edmundo González “he did not respond to the call of the country.” While the opponent defended himself by saying that he did not have an invitation to go to the headquarters of the electoral body.
Márquez, for his part, and who was rector of the CNE, said this Friday that to solve the problems in Venezuela an agreement is not necessary, only political will, and criticized those who signed with Maduro. “They gave him a blank check,” said the candidate, ensuring that the text was not discussed or known beforehand.
Additionally, Márquez also criticized the presidents of Colombia and Brazil, Gustavo Petro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, because, according to him, “they washed their hands.” with the case of Venezuela in view of the fact that the proposals that both presented for a democratic transition had no response from Chavismo.
Given this, Maduro said that those who do not recognize the agreement seek to “destabilize and sabotage this electoral process, but with or without them there will be elections,” a discourse that seems aligned with that of the CNE.
We and Venezuela sign the Barbados Agreement. That is the document that contains all the clauses including those that propose recognition of the electoral results. We see no reason to sign something new
Thus, analysts consulted by this newspaper assure that the agreement must be looked at with a magnifying glass, especially because so far this year, 37 opponents have been arrested, including local leaders and collaborators of Machado.. Added to this is the disqualification of ten mayors as punishment for receiving the opposition in their municipalities. There are even six more of her collaborators sheltering in the Argentine Embassy in Caracas.
“This agreement puts highly nationalist elements on the table, such as, for example, the demand for the lifting of sanctions on the nation. This can lead to criminal action against those candidates who allegedly requested sanctions, in accordance with the Executive’s vision,” political scientist Carlos Zambrano told EL TIEMPO. The analyst also maintains that the ruling party seeks to impose the narrative that it has an “advantage” in the election, despite the fact that the polls do not favor it.
Álvaro Pulido, an analyst and consultant at the Central University of Venezuela, considers that having González and Márquez outside the agreement gives the regime the possibility of new maneuvers, “such as later disqualifying the two opponents alleging that they did not want to commit to development.” of the election.”
“It is an indication of the bias that characterizes this unequal campaign,” González stated after adding that “revoking the international observation of the European Union and increasing the persecution against leaders and sympathizers of our campaign precisely violated the Barbados agreement.”
It should be remembered that Amoroso revoked the invitation to the European community bloc a month after Brussels ratified individual sanctions against Chavismo leaders, although it suspended one against the president of the CNE himself.
Despite the adverse scenario, political scientist and former deputy Ángel Medina believes that July 28 is an opportunity for there to be “an avalanche” of votes in favor of the opposition. In fact, Medina believes that, although the situation must be viewed with caution, the signing of the agreement does not prevent González from winning. “Unlike other elections, citizen discontent is greater,” he says.
In any case, the presidential election in Venezuela will not be like that of Argentina, where the victory of Javier Milei was consolidated against the handover of power by Kirchnerism without any surprises. Or even the most recent elections in Mexico, in which the Moreno movement renewed its strength and the opposition parties allowed continuity in a democratic framework.
For Medina, it is key to take these elections as an example because it highlights “the importance of the parties offering guarantees so that the candidates commit their word and will to establish processes” that reduce the uncertainty of a transition.
However, Medina goes further and believes that there are two fundamental points for an electoral victory. On the one hand, there should be a massive and effective vote, attacking abstentionism. It is necessary for “voters to go to their voting center early,” she explains. The second, protect the votes and, for them, a strategy must be “designed that allows presence and information about the counting.”
The scenario if Nicolás Maduro wins in Venezuela
The question of what would happen if Maduro is re-elected again is equally a matter of discussion. The British firm Barclays sees “significant possibilities” for a transition in Venezuela, based on the fact that the internal disputes of Chavismo can force different factors into a negotiation.
In a report released this week, the firm evaluated the possibility of a transition, but also that Maduro continues and is re-elected for six more years. “If Maduro remains in power, a possible debt restructuring would be delayed and recovery values could be lower, but it cannot be ruled out,” the document says.
But, Barclays believes that due to the credibility that Edmundo González has, the transition is very likely. “This is an unprecedented situation since, in almost 25 years in power, Chavismo had never gone to national elections with such a great disadvantage, which makes it extremely difficult for Maduro to win elections under minimal competitive conditions.” , reads the report.
Maduro is not doing well in the polls
The polls in Venezuela are varied, but, to date, they all give an advantage to Edmundo González, who has left the large concentrations and rallies in the hands of María Corina Machado, while he attends events in small and short groups.
The latest study by the consulting firm Datincorp, from May, showed that González has 62 percent approval, compared to 20.33 percent for Nicolás Maduro.
Support for the rest of the candidates is divided as follows: comedian Benjamín Rausseo, with 3.42 percent; the evangelical pastor Javier Bertucci, 2.25 percent; the deputy Luis Eduardo Martínez, 1.75 percent, the several-time candidate Claudio Fermín with 1.5 percent; Antonio Ecarri, 0.92 percent; the former rector of the CNE Enrique Márquez, 0.75 percent; José Brito, 0.33 percent and Daniel Ceballos, 0.25 percent.
For its part, the Center for Political and Government Studies of the Andrés Bello Catholic University projects a participation of 11 million voters. Of them, González could obtain about 7 million votes, while Maduro would not exceed 4.7 million.
ANA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
EL TIEMPO correspondent
CARACAS
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