The Wilson Center, one of the most important think tanks in the United States, brought together a panel of experts this Tuesday to talk about the future, if there is any, of the Barbados agreements that were signed between the opposition and the regime of Nicolás Maduro to move towards a legitimate electoral process that puts an end to the crisis facing the Latin American country.
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Among them, former officials from the administration of former United States presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump; former presidents of the region; prestigious Latin American jurists, and members of human rights NGOs.
And although the verdict was not unanimous, most agreed that Maduro has no intention of honoring his commitments and that US sanctions will likely have to be reimposed.. In this scenario, the experts also referred to the complex future that lies ahead and the role that the international community must assume.
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According to William Brownfield, former United States ambassador to Venezuela and Colombia and former undersecretary of state in the bureau on international drug trafficking, Maduro will never comply with an agreement that results in his departure from power and has already concluded that allowing the candidacy of the opposition leader, María Corina Machado, would lead to that result..
According to Brownfield, at this point Maduro would only be considering three options: “that the opposition choose another candidate whom it can beat, allow the elections but to steal them as it has done in the past, or cancel the electoral process in its entirety.” .
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According to the former ambassador, looking forward the only way is the reimposition of sanctions – a decision that in his opinion has been delayed for too long – and enlisting the entire international community to exert pressure and promote a democratic solution. He also spoke of giving unrestricted support to Machado's candidacy and providing support to the Venezuelan diaspora abroad so that they can organize and participate in eventual elections.
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Although Brownfield refrained from classifying the Barbados agreement as a failure, he gave it a C grade, but not before suggesting a lot of naivety by offering the lifting of sanctions in exchange for promises from a regime that is characterized by never fulfilling.
Former Colombian president Iván Duque, who is currently a distinguished fellow at the Wilson Center, said something similar. For the former president, Maduro plans to remain in office at any cost and called for a return to the policies of total pressure and international isolation that were tried against the regime during his government and that of Trump..
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“Every concession he has been given he has used to attack the opposition and carry out atrocities against those who oppose him. Sanctions must be imposed decisively not only against the regime but also against its environment“Duque said after insisting that Maduro should not even be allowed to participate in the elections for being responsible for “crimes against humanity and drug trafficking.”
Maduro, according to the former Colombian president, what he intends is to carry out paper and fraudulent elections that legitimize him in power. “We can't allow that. There are no easy ways out. But it is a clear requirement. That sanctions be reimposed and Machando be known as the face and voice of the democratic resistance in Venezuela“added the former president.
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Manuel Ventura, former chancellor of Costa Rica and former magistrate of the Inter-American Court for Human Rights, was also emphatic that Maduro will not leave power voluntarily and that the disqualification against Machado is illegal and contrary to what is established by the inter-American justice system. .
Mark Fierstein, Obama's former national security adviser for the Western Hemisphere, was among the few to offer a moderately optimistic view.
Fierstein started defending the role that the Biden administration has played in indicating that the primary elections that allowed Machado's resounding victory – and that today has Maduro on the ropes – were the product of that intervention, and through it the release of political prisoners and the same Barbados agreement.
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For the advisor, there is a small window of opportunity that must be supported and that is the determination of Venezuelans to participate in the electoral process and defeat Maduro.
Likewise, he stressed that Machado may be the best alternative that Maduro has to negotiate some type of transition or immunity in view of the multiple processes he faces in the United States and the investigation by the International Court of Justice.
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The panel was moderated by Leopoldo López, a former candidate of the Voluntad Popular party who was arrested for years by the Maduro regime.and also had the participation of Isabel Carlota Roby, lawyer at the Robert F. Kennedy Center for Human Rights.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
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