AOn the front line, Ukraine is increasingly on the defensive. There is a lack of weapons and ammunition to withstand the Russian troops. The successes of Ukrainian drone attacks in recent months are all the more astonishing: Russia's fleet in the Black Sea had to retreat to the east. And since the beginning of the year, drones have attacked a dozen oil refineries and several oil tanks on Russian territory, some hundreds of kilometers from the front.
The Russian air defense repelled some attacks, but by no means all. The attacks became particularly intense in the days before the imitation election in mid-March, in which Vladimir Putin was once again proclaimed president. Some of the country's largest refineries were damaged, including one of the state-controlled Rosneft Group in Ryazan, almost 200 kilometers southeast of Moscow.
The strikes are so effective that they appear to be fueling concerns in the West about the already rising price of oil. As the Financial Times newspaper reported on Friday, Washington is said to have repeatedly called on Kiev to stop the attacks – but there were also attacks again at the weekend. The extent of the damage caused so far can only be estimated. Sergei Wakulenko, an oil and gas expert at the Carnegie think tank, assumes a possible decline in production of around 15 percent. However, there are enough supplies of kerosene and diesel, and consumption of gasoline roughly corresponds to the current production capacity, Wakulenko recently wrote on the blog portal Substack.
Sanctions and new supply chains
Not all attacks result in serious problems; Some systems can start working again after a short time, others only with limited capacity. The important Rosneft refinery in Tuapse on the Black Sea, which produces for export, is still out of operation since a drone attack in late January, and according to Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov, repairs will take several months. Sanctions also play a role: some western-made spare parts are no longer allowed to be sold to Russia. Obtaining them via detours not only costs a lot of money, but also time.
Because of the attacks, among other things, the Russian government suspended the export of gasoline for six months from March in order to keep fuel prices low. Under no circumstances should there be queues in front of petrol stations; The population should continue to be able to ignore all the negative consequences of the war. There is no mention of the drone attacks in the government's export ban order. Instead, it says the measures are related to higher fuel demand due to “spring field work, the holiday season and scheduled refinery repairs.” Nevertheless, stock market prices for gasoline and diesel rose to their highest level since the beginning of the year in March.
Russia had already experienced problems with high fuel prices last summer; Back then, some gas stations even ran out of fuel. But this only had indirectly to do with the war: in addition to seasonal reasons such as harvest and travel season, the weak ruble and failed attempts by the government to keep prices low made exports more attractive for producers. In addition, longer transport routes increased demand as a result of sanctions and new supply chains.
In addition, the army also needs large quantities of diesel, which comes particularly from refineries that are close to the war zone in southwest Russia. However, experts believe it is unlikely that the drone attacks could lead to supply problems on the front: 40 percent of oil processing in Russia is beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones, according to Wakulenko's article. If only these plants were still in operation, they could still cover the demand for diesel, marine diesel and Masut heating oil. There could be a deficit of 20 to 30 percent for gasoline and kerosene for civil aviation, but this could be offset by imports from Belarus.
Nevertheless, the attacks are unpleasant for Russia. Exports have so far been particularly affected, and their loss has little impact on the budget as the income is insignificant compared to the sale of crude oil. But Wakulenko points out that the cost of repairs to the refineries far exceeds the cost of the drones, which is important in a war of attrition. Russia is now considering setting up Panzer air defense systems at some refineries. But these are missing elsewhere – that too is likely to be part of the Ukrainian strategy.
Furthermore, if fuel had to be brought west from the facilities further east, this would further impact the already overloaded rail traffic and increase the already increased transport costs for the economy. In addition, the attacks show Russia's defense weaknesses, something the Kremlin wants to avoid at all costs: In several regions it is now forbidden to post images and videos of drone attacks on the Internet.
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