The PSOE would continue to be the party with the most votes in a general election, but the main government party shows severe erosion in just one month, and reduces the distance it had in May from five points above the PP to just one point, according to the latest barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). The socialists remain the first force with a vote estimate of 31.7%, well below the 35.5% that the institute directed by José Félix Tezanos gave them last month. The PP, which won the European elections with 34.2% support, four points ahead of the PSOE, would obtain 30.7%, three tenths more than in the previous demographic study.
Se Acabó La Fiesta, the group of voters of the ultra agitator Alvise Pérez, which was the big surprise of the European Parliament elections, in which it debuted with 800,000 votes and three MEPs, emerges with a support of 1.5%. But it would be necessary to see what representation in Congress this would translate into: the European elections, being a single constituency, did not penalize the geographical dispersion of the distribution of votes for Alvise Pérez’s candidacy. Another issue would be in legislative and regional elections.
Alvise’s strength on his right does not penalize Vox, which consolidates its position in third place with 12.1% of the votes, according to the latest CIS barometer, which was carried out between May 31 and June 6. that is, in the final stretch of the European campaign. Santiago Abascal’s party experiences a progressive increase, of almost two points compared to May data (10.2%).
Sumar, the minority partner of the Government coalition, stops its decline despite being immersed in a deep crisis due to the result of the European elections, which led Yolanda Díaz to leave its leadership after the 9-J debacle. With a vote estimate of 8.8%, Sumar recovers eight tenths compared to May, but is still 3.5 points below its result in 23-J without having completed a year of the last legislative elections. Podemos, which in May obtained 2.2% support, the floor currently predicted by the CIS after its split from Sumar, climbed 1.4 points (3.6%), its highest score since it broke with Diaz’s platform.
The fight between ERC and Junts for hegemony in the Catalan independence movement is resolved slightly in favor of the Republicans, with a vote estimate of 1.8%, two tenths more than the neo-convergents. The Catalan elections of 12-M left a different and very favorable scenario for Carles Puigdemont’s party, which grew and came second, compared to the collapse of ERC, which caused the resignation of Pere Aragonès as president of the Generalitat. EH Bildu (1.1%) also wins its duel with the PNV (0.9%) on points, which has just revalidated the government pact with the PSE in Euskadi.
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Sánchez, the highest rated leader
None of the leaders of the major parties approve. Pedro Sánchez remains the best rated with a score of 4.30 points out of 10 possible (4.39 in May). The next is Yolanda Díaz, second vice president and Minister of Labor, with an average score of 4.11 points, lower than the 4.19 of the previous survey and which coincides with the crisis in the space to the left of the PSOE that she intends to lead. Alberto Núñez Feijóo also worsens and obtains an average score of 3.87 points, compared to 4.01 in the previous barometer. Santiago Abascal repeats as the lowest rated leader of the main parties with an average of 2.81, a few hundredths worse than a month ago (2.84).
Those in favor of Sánchez being the president of the Government (27.4%) are double those who opt for Feijóo (13.6%). Continuing with the comparison between those responsible for the two major parties, the general secretary of the PSOE in turn inspires a lot or quite a lot of confidence in 30.3% of citizens – the same as in May – and little or none in 67.6%. . The opposition leader’s numbers are worse: he only transmits confidence to 21.9% -22.2% a month ago- and little or none to 76% according to the CIS.
“Political problems in general” repeat as the main concern of Spaniards, according to 23% of those surveyed, further proof of the tension and polarization that prevails in Spanish politics. The next cause of concern is housing (21.2%), ahead of unemployment (19.6%). Economic problems are no longer the first headache as they were in April and they fall from first to fourth place (17.8%). “Bad behavior of politicians”, with 14.2%, which was already the third concern in the March barometer, drops to seventh place. The independence of Catalonia only keeps 0.6% of Spaniards awake at night and the Monarchy is only a problem for 0.3% according to the CIS barometer, whose publication coincided with the week of the tenth anniversary of Felipe’s proclamation. VI as head of state.
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