Catalan politicians invoke their proclivity to push deadlines to the limit to leave doors open as to whether in eight days there will be a candidate with guarantees, or even without them, to preside over the Generalitat. Today, the process of building a majority around the candidate who won the Catalan elections, the socialist Salvador Illa, is going with enormous difficulty. The other possibility, that it is Carles Puigdemont, Junts candidate, seems even more distant. The option of the PSC, with the unambiguous approval of the PSOE, of its maximum leader and head of the government, Pedro Sánchez, remains unchanged in obtaining the support of the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC).
The courtship of ERC is practiced with an open face. The problem is multiple. The first question is to know who has the capacity for dialogue and decision in the republican and sovereign party to say yes to Illa’s investiture.
All questions lack answers in the short term because ERC’s internal process is in its beginnings. Right now there is no univocal criterion in the party as to whether the first decision of the open reflection process, after the electoral debacle of May 12, should be to support the PSC.
Faced with this uncertainty, the socialists observe the internal movements of ERC as if it were their own process. The Catalan Government is doing well in its results. The framework in which they operate is well defined: who wins in ERC and with what decisions regarding the government of the Generalitat and the central government. Is not easy. Within the republican bases, those in favor of rejecting the option of sharing a destiny with the socialists are not few. Who are more? The answer is not yet defined, tested or verified. They do know in the PSC, also in broad sectors of ERC, that Junts per Catalunya follows them very closely, ready to denounce before the Catalan society related to sovereignty their dedication to the PSC, to the PSOE, to Madrid.
The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has been directly and personally involved in paving the way for the investiture of his friend and leader of the sister party, Salvador Illa. It could not be otherwise, since ERC’s demands can only be satisfied by the Government of Spain. The main demand is for “unique” financing for Catalonia, whose name provides heavy caliber ammunition against Pedro Sánchez to the PP, its autonomous communities and some of the PSOE.
The obstacle is not small. In ERC, supporters of no means no to supporting a socialist to govern Catalonia will give their opinion on the financing model that can be offered to them, but without there being a cause-and-effect relationship with the investiture of the next president of the Generalitat. The other variable is in the field of the Government of Spain: the proposal that it is going to offer will or will not be sufficient so that even the most receptive in the republican field can consider it acceptable. It is also not insured. The alternative to the total blockade will be the electoral repetition in the month of October, after a call at the end of August. Only those from Junts are interested in elections, not at all ERC. And the PSC does not fear them.
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The application of the Amnesty Law fully enters the basket of cherries that intertwines the formation of the Government in Catalonia and the stability of the central Executive. Not only Carles Puigdemont has many reasons to think that his free will is in question in the short term, but also the resigned leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, whose disqualification from holding public office, after recovering his right to be elected, seems to continue. in force, so it transcends the positions that the highest competent judicial instances are maintaining.
Their arguments claim to be strictly legal, like those maintained by the State Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, who defends that the crimes to be amnestied cover all those that weigh on the leaders of the processes . The Supreme Court convicted them of embezzlement and the ruling itself indicates that this occurred with resources from the State and not from the European Union, which is one of the arguments of the Supreme Court prosecutors to reject the amnesty. The ruling itself on the processes It will serve as argumentative support for Álvaro García Ortiz before the prosecutors who once saw the crime of rebellion in the pro-independence leaders in court where the sentencing court saw and convicted them of sedition.
The attorney general also has no legal doubts about the correctness of his actions in the case of the partner of the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso. The Prosecutor’s Office did not disclose any personal data but instead came out against a flagrant falsehood, the Prosecutor will maintain if he is called to testify judicially. His certainty is such that, no matter what happens, including being charged, he will not leave his position. The Government cannot stop him. It will be a new Executive that can take over, but there will be no general elections in the medium term, unless Catalonia capsizes the ship of State.
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