With the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel on the night of April 13, the war in the Middle East has taken on a new dimension. For years, the conflict between Iran and Israel had been a “shadow war” in which both sides avoided direct military attacks on the other's territory.
In these hot spots, the so-called Axis of Resistance – made up of Hezbollah (in Lebanon), Hamas (in Gaza) and the Houthis (in Yemen) – receives extensive support in the form of money, weapons and training from the Iranians.
The current war began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack on Israel that claimed 1,200 lives and 253 hostages. Soon, Israel counterattacked and the war in Gaza has been active ever since. As a result of the Israel Defense Forces' campaign to eliminate Hamas once and for all, more than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed and the enclave has been virtually demolished.
Despite these horrors and the appalling conditions in Gaza, the war is the latest chapter in a bloody conflict in which Israelis and Palestinians have been locked in over the same territory for almost 80 years.
In contrast, Iran's direct attack on Israel represents something new. Launching an attack from Iranian territory, rather than by any of the intermediate militant organizations, is to invite reprisals on the country itself (as in fact happened on Friday).
The Iranian regime must either feel very confident, or be under enormous pressure to demonstrate its strength, even if that means an “open war” not only with Israel, but with the United States.
The immediate trigger was the April 1 Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate building next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, which killed several members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two high-ranking commanders. While these were hardly the first victims of the “shadow war” in Syria and Lebanon, Iranian authorities this time felt motivated to respond.
It's true that Iran supposedly warned the United States through informal channels that its counterattack was imminent, so no one was surprised when it happened.
In any case, the implications of the measure are profound. The war is no longer one between Israel and Palestine over a strip of territory; now it has become regionalized, or even globalized.
Lurking ominously in the background of the scenario is the potential threat posed by the Iranian nuclear program. Given recent events, this existential threat to Israel becomes less hypothetical every day. Will Iran now take the final steps to cross the nuclear threshold, and will that mere possibility increase the odds of war with Israel and the United States? That is today the big question for the entire region.
A macro theme
To have a solid position in this new international order, nuclear weapons, access to advanced technology, and the end of the economic isolation implied by extensive Western sanctions will be needed. All of this seems within reach by deepening relations with China, Russia and parts of the global south.
Iran's theocrats know that their position is fragile within the country.
Large-scale demonstrations led by women, youth, and ethnic minorities (e.g., in Kurdistan and Balochistan) have discredited the regime, as has rampant corruption among the ruling elite. The aging rulers no longer have any legitimacy and merely sustain themselves through direct repression.
But while relying on batons and bullets may work for a while, it is hardly a recipe for long-term success. However, the situation is completely different in geopolitical terms.
The Iranian theocratic regime is among the big winners of the transition to a non-American-led world order. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran's nuclear program has advanced further than ever and has reached the threshold of enriching enough uranium suitable for military use.
It would also have to be assumed that the country has the technological knowledge to build a nuclear warhead and the systems to launch it.
In an increasingly favorable political landscape, Iran's marriage of convenience with Russia and China is of capital importance, not least because it will allow the regime to escape decades of international isolation.
As new and emerging powers seek to develop new multilateral structures beyond Western hegemony, it is almost inevitable that Iran will benefit.
The war in the Middle East must be understood in this larger context, which also includes Ukraine and Taiwan. We are witnessing increasingly bold and ambitious initiatives to overthrow the old Western order by any means necessary, including direct war.
JOSHKA FISCHER
© PROJECT SYNDICATE
BERLIN
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