Leader of the National Regroupment acknowledges defeat in the legislative elections this Sunday (7.Jul); left leads
Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN (National Rally), said this Sunday (7.Jul.2024) that the victory of the right in France “it’s just postponed”. The statement was made after the end of the second round of elections for the French National Assembly and projections of a left-wing victory in the Lower House of Parliament.
“The tide is rising. It has not risen enough this time, but it continues to rise, and so our victory is only postponed.”Le Pen declared. According to preliminary data, the RN performed well below expectations: it is expected to win 132 to 152 seats out of 577 in the National Assembly.
The number puts the right-wing party in third place, behind the NFP (New Popular Front) and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, Together. The left-wing coalition hastily formed to defeat the RN is expected to win up to 192 seats, while the French president’s group is expected to elect 150 to 170 deputies.
To achieve a majority, 289 seats are needed in the National Assembly. Polls closed at 8 pm (3 pm Brasília time) this Sunday (7 July).
Jordan Bardella, who also leads the RN, was the top candidate for the post of prime minister in the event of a victory for the party in the National Assembly.
Le Pen’s protégé admitted defeat and said that “Incendiary far-leftism will not take the country anywhere” and criticized the “unnatural alliances” between the presidential camp and the left, which, according to him, led to the defeat of his party.
“Unfortunately, the dishonorable alliance and electoral arrangements made by Emmanuel Macron and Gabriel Attal with the far left deprive” voters of a government of RN, declared Bardella, referring to the so-called “Cordon sanitaire” formed by the centrist and left-wing coalition that encourages less competitive candidates to withdraw from the 2nd round in an attempt to block the advance of the right.
1 man 1 vote
The national legislative elections in France are by pure district: only those who obtain the majority of votes in their district are elected to Parliament.
The country is divided into 577 electoral districts in which there is a similar number of voters (the idea is to preserve the concept of “1 man 1 vote”): the elected parliamentarians arrive at the Legislature representing constituencies in which the weight of the electorate is equivalent.
This does not happen in Brazilian elections. The 26 states and the Federal District are the “districts” in which federal deputies are elected. TSE data from 2022 indicate many asymmetries. Here is a comparison between São Paulo and Acre:
- The State of São Paulo he had 34,667,793 voters in 2022 and had the right to elect 70 federal deputies (i.e. only 1 seat in the Chamber for each 495,254 voters from São Paulo);
- The State of Acre with 588,433 voters in 2022 chose 8 deputies (1 deputy each) 73,554 Acre voters).
These disproportions do not occur in the French system: the deputies who go to Parliament represent constituencies with similar numbers of voters – that is, respecting the democratic principle of “1 man 1 vote”. In Brazil, the votes of people from Acre, for example, are worth much more than those of people from São Paulo.
Furthermore, in France, for a candidate to be elected to Parliament in the first round, it is necessary to obtain at least 50% + 1 of the votes. Only 76 candidates managed to reach this mark in 2024. The other 501 will be defined this Sunday (7 July).
Another particularity of the French system is that not only the two candidates with the most votes advance to the second round, but also the remaining candidates who received at least 12.5% in the first round. In Brazil, in two-round elections (mayor, governor and mayor) only the two candidates with the most votes can participate in the final round of voting. In France, there are situations where up to four candidates compete.
This characteristic of having several candidates running in the second round in France allows some candidates to drop out and support others who they consider to have a better chance of winning. This is exactly what is happening now, with Macron having orchestrated this movement to try to isolate right-wing candidates in several districts.
France, unlike Brazil, has a semi-presidential system. The president is directly elected, but shares part of the responsibility with the prime minister, who is chosen by the legislature. Today, the French prime minister is Gabriel Attal, from the same party as Macron.
To nominate someone for the post of prime minister, the party or front must have at least 289 deputies. If the right wins the elections this Sunday (7 July), France would enter a system known as “cohabitation”: a centrist president (Macron) and a right-wing prime minister.
Macron was elected in April 2022 and his term is 5 years. He will remain in office until 2027.
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