A face to face characterizes the struggle of the extreme right on the way to the presidential elections in France. The former journalist and polemicist of the ‘Reconquista’ party faces the leader of the National Association, Marine Le Pen. Thus, the extreme right arrives at the elections polarized, but has also managed to secure a good part of the electorate: the polls indicate that the two candidates would cover 30% of the voting intention.
Divided but with more followers. The same speeches but exacerbated. New faces alongside familiar ones. Among these paradoxes comes the extreme right to the presidential elections in France. A new chapter towards the Elysée Palace that has two protagonists with their own names: Marine LePenof National Association, and Eric Zemmourof the Reconquista political party.
Le Pen returns to the presidential race and hopes that this will be the charm. He is again facing his old rival, President Emmanuel Macron, who is seeking his re-election. Despite the fact that she had established herself as the standard-bearer of the extreme right for years, this time, she has a new opponent.
This is the controversialist and former journalist, Eric Zemmour. With his own political party, the Reconquista candidate has exacerbated the speeches of the extreme right but has also repeatedly assured that he will give it a new face.
Thus, the atomized extreme right has become an attractive alternative for many of those who disagree with Macron’s mandate. However, the clashes between his representatives could keep her from a second round.
The visible fractures of the extreme right
It is a scenario that has not been experienced for years. The leadership of the French far right, which seemed to be synonymous with Marine Le Pen’s candidacy, is now more divided than ever.
According to Eugénie Richard, a political scientist and expert in communication and political marketing, for the first time in years Le Pen does not reap “the angry and anti-systemic vote” as she had done in other campaigns.
“His position as a figure who embodied disappointment in the face of the elites, in the face of traditional power, has lost this position and this is currently being occupied by Eric Zemmour. For the first time in years, the extreme right has two representatives”, says Richard.
The extreme right arrives at the elections on April 10 in the midst of crossed accusations; with both candidates trying to smear the other’s campaign. Le Pen criticizes the radicalism of Zemmour, who for his part, assures that the speech of his contender is more worn than ever. The debater stated in an interview, “Everyone knows that she can’t win… Even herself.”
Also showing their rivalry are the recent comments made by the National Association candidate on Zemmour’s proposal for a ministry dedicated to the expulsion of undocumented foreigners. She “she thought that she had abandoned the idea of ’re-emigration’. I see that she has taken it up again, probably because her situation in this presidential race is not as promising as she expected, ”Le Pen assured a few weeks ago.
Some irreconcilable fractures that have led to a divided vote. “On the one hand, Le Pen is still far ahead in what would be the working class vote, while Zemmour wins widely in what are the wealthy classes and voters disappointed with Lepenism,” explains Sergio Gracia Montes, lawyer and director Cinved.
The divisions are expressed even within Le Pen’s own party, which has lost several of its figures. One of them: Marion Marechal, niece of the candidate.
His announcement earlier this month, justified by Zemmour’s “coherence, vision and strategy”, aroused the disappointment of Le Pen, who assured: “I have a particular history with Marion: I raised her, along with my sister, during the first years of his life”.
What characterizes the segment of the electorate of both candidates?
Le Pen covers 20% of the voting intention. Zemmour, meanwhile, 10%. According to the survey of Opinionway and Kéa for March 29 the votes of these two candidates would be exceeding by 2% those of Emmanuel Macron, with 28%.
“The extreme right is divided, but it is robust,” says Richard. And he adds: “I think that the discourse of the extreme right has been trivializing for a long time, that there is a fracture in France, that there are two irreconcilable populations. And that has to change. The extreme right continues to harvest its vote in the classes that feel excluded from traditional power.
However, the Zemmour phenomenon has revealed a new type of voters who have opted for the extreme right. Gracia assures that this is due to the fact that many people who “until recently refused to vote for Le Pen for different reasons such as ideological, socio-cultural and even, we could say even economic” have opted for Zemmour.
Gracia points out that it is “those French ‘patriots’, who have a clear reactionary character and who no longer hide it.”
Zemmour’s speech, loaded with symbolism that appeals to the national imagination, has permeated that part of the electorate. As Eusabio Val points out in an article in the Spanish newspaper ‘La Vanguardia‘, the Reconquista candidate speaks to them “of an eternal and glorious France, not at all self-critical, almost mystical, of universal writers and thinkers, of film figures, of singers, and, of course, of Napoleon and De Gaulle”.
For his part, Richard believes Zemmour’s constituency encompasses “monarchists, traditional Catholics. They are people disappointed in politics in general, they are people who have hate speech because they have felt discriminated against by traditional political elites.”
Le Pen’s case is different. According to the political scientist, the base of his electorate lies in what she calls the “silent majority.” That is to say, “the people who do not make much noise but who are ultimately many of the underprivileged classes (…) not so much nationalists, but who want the State to listen to them.”
The difference by sex and place of residence also play on the electoral board of the extreme right. Zemmour, with a speech that has been branded sexist, has lost the support of many women who opt for Le Pen. It also seems that the candidate has a greater presence in large cities, while his contender does so in medium-sized cities and in rural areas.
How does Zemmour get to the presidential?
When Éric Zemmour launched his candidacy on November 30 last year, he was selling himself as the new face of the extreme right. A renewed, determined and open-minded.
Until then he had worked as a journalist. Now, at 63 years old and from his mastery with emotionally charged language and appealing to emotions, he was able to win a good part of the electorate.
Zemmour took over the imaginary of immigration and hardened the discourse on the need to form measures to stop it. According to Gracia, “he recently pointed out that massive immigration is ‘changing the face of France’ and that immigrants are ‘colonizing’ the country, hiding the history of France and its past and present relationship, for example, with the African continent. ”.
However, the candidate reaches the final stretch with a drop in voting intentions. A setback that Richard explains by the weakening of his speech.
“His campaign strategy, which is to move people, with a speech with a strong emotional component, goes against what Marine Le Pen is doing, which is going to meet people on the ground,” says the political scientist.
In addition, the candidate’s positions on Russia, characterized by their ambiguity, played against him, losing even more supporters.
A shift towards moderation in Le Pen’s new Elysée race?
“Le Pen’s political strategy is to abandon this confrontational speech to adopt a much more presidential tone,” says Richard. And it is that a commitment to moderation is probably one of the differentiating characteristics of this new campaign of the leader of the National Association.
Such as expose ‘elDiario.es‘, “the electoral barometer of the National Group, which is produced every year by the company Kantar Public for French public television, reveals that the candidate has managed to soften her image.”
At the same time, his campaign strategy close to people and tackling very specific problems “ends up taking hold”, says Richard. Le Pen, for example, has taken the issue of purchasing power as another of her central points, an aspect that strikes a chord with many of her voters who, according to her, have not been listened to by Macron.
However, another peculiarity of this campaign is that many see his speech as worn out. One of the reasons why he has lost the momentum of past elections and that has led some of his closest collaborators to distance themselves from the project they were betting on.
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