The changes promoted by the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) with its reforms to the Judicial Branch and the elimination of autonomous organizations could seriously challenge the long-term competitiveness of North America and its nearshoring potential.
In addition, billions of dollars in U.S. and Canadian investments in Mexico could be put at risk, a Wilson Institute analysis warned.
These changes would also induce a complicated revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026, he noted in a document titled “Inflection Point: The Impact of AMLO’s Reforms on the USMCA and Nearshoring,” written by Diego Marroquín Bitar. “Before leaving office on October 1, AMLO’s supermajority plans to implement 18 constitutional reforms that would weaken Mexico’s economic regulatory landscape, degrade its investment climate, dissolve checks and balances, and undermine the country’s ability to comply with international commitments, including the USMCA,” he described.
This analysis takes place in a context in which AMLO has called it a lie that the reform to the Judicial Branch will affect foreign investment, after EL NORTE published that in Nuevo León alone there are four projects halted for 1.2 billion dollars, due to the uncertainty of the reforms.
However, the Wilson Institute notes that if approved, the judicial reform as presented would seriously weaken the role of the judiciary as an independent check on presidential power, leaving judicial decisions vulnerable to political influence. Concern extends to the reform that seeks to dismantle Mexico’s antitrust agencies, such as the Federal Economic Competition Commission, the Federal Telecommunications Institute and the Energy Regulatory Commission, to transfer their functions to executive branch agencies such as the Ministries of Economy and Energy. No data On the other hand, Larry Rubin, president of the American Society of Mexico, explained that at the moment there is no confirmed data on the halt of investments in the country, since the final decisions will be made after the version of the reform that is approved by the new Congress. However, the fact that at the moment there has been no outflow of investments, the ideal will be to avoid the reform to the Judicial Branch as it is planned to be carried out in order to avoid emergency plans. “We don’t want it to get to the point where companies from different parts of the world question the viability of being in Mexico. On the contrary, our role as American Society, as leaders of the American community, is to promote the best conditions for investors from around the world to want and come to Mexico,” Rubin said. The reforms would also lead to a complicated review of the USMCA, according to the Wilson Institute analysis.
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