Learnings of the democratic alternation.
The Mexican electoral map is increasingly dyed in a cherry color, after the triumph of MORENA in the 2022 elections, in which he won 4 of 6 governorships, adding a total of 22 entities governed by this political party in a period of only 4 years. In other words, 68.75% of the national territory, where a little more than 69 million Mexicans live, is governed by MORENA, according to figures from the 2020 Population and Housing Census.
Despite the panorama, the national leader of the PAN, Marko Cortés, announced that “There is a shot for 2024”. The foregoing, according to the triumph of two governorships: in Aguascalientes and Durango. In response, the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, stated “Of course yes, yes. In politics it cannot be said that nothing is irreversible and in democracy less so, because it is the people who rule and nothing in politics and having democracy is eternal. But you have to convince, you have to argue, you have to make proposals”.
Indeed, in a democratic regime, politics becomes a blank check characterized by transience. The change is inexorable, if the parties prove incapable of getting back on track and addressing the problems of the people, who are ultimately the ones who decide an election. Given this, no party should be trusted, or presumed winner ahead of time. Precisely, the before and after of this penultimate election to reach 2024, gave us many lessons, of which I mention the most important:
National Leaders.
It is a priority within this task to check if its leaders are representing the party, its militancy, values and ideologies. If they have elements that produce repudiation among the population, such as: corruption, association with rough topics and, of course, if these leaders make decisions towards the future or from an obsolete past.
Coalitions and candidates
In the states where MORENA triumphed with a great advantage, the lack of coalitions between PAN-PRI-PRD is common. In Quintana Roo, an opaque PRI candidate faced a solid candidate such as Mara Lezama, a situation that defined the contest practically from its inception. In Oaxaca, it was also the opposition that ensured victory for the official party. In contrast, states with good profiles and strong alliances, Aguascalientes and Durango, were won by the opposition.
Will the coalition be a definitive factor? In the same sense, having candidates who are experienced, prepared, charismatic, knowledgeable about their status and able to connect with people from different social strata and ideologies, is essential for a good performance before the electorate.
The 2024 election will depend on the candidate and his coalition, on how much he sympathizes with the people and presents an attractive political offer for the people.
The novel factor: Citizen Movement
Despite the fact that Movimiento Ciudadano obtained a low vote in the states of the last election, it was able to maintain its record without losing its essence of a new party that represents different and unprecedented faces, with talent, given the above, it has decided to “go alone ”. As stated by its national leader, Dante Delgado Rannauro in not going in alliance in these elections and confirms that they do not go together in 2024, why? Because the opposition has taken the wrong course…
Citizen Movement represents a strong long-term competitor, thanks to the fact that it has understood that a large part of the population chooses the candidates, not so much the party.
Abstentionism
The more participation, the more democracy and competition. Unlike 2021, a great abstentionism could be seen on the part of the electorate, since, of the 11 million 700 thousand voters, 6 million 552 thousand citizens did not vote, which represents more than half.
What do the parties need to encourage the electorate? It is a priority to consider that a large part of the abstentionists has been characterized by being young.
women and youth
According to data from the National Electoral Institute, the electoral roll is made up of 93 million 676 thousand 029 registered citizens; 48 million 531 thousand 777 women (51.88%), and 45 million 144 thousand 252 men (48.19%).
In other words, women are part of the majority and young people are a large part of the electorate, who generally do not vote in elections, which is risky because they will be the ones who represent the country tomorrow.
Therefore, they have to including attractive proposals for them and encouraging them to get involved in politics would be a victory not only for the parties, but also for Mexico.
Proposals
New strategies are needed within the parties. MORENA has well understood what Mexico needs today, the fight against corruption continues to be an important factor in campaigns.
Change is the only constant, today we go through more challenges than in 2018 and 2021 and nobody bathes twice in the same river, because new waters always run over you”
We have to listen to the people to develop proposals with public value, that is, what does Mexico really need? How to solve these social problems? More than denotations towards the parties, we must focus on creating, arguing, reforming and not declaring a legislative moratorium that limits the work of legislators.
conclusion
“Yes, there is a shot in 2024”, because Mexico is a democratic country where the people decide, where the parties must learn from their mistakes and constant change. Today the results do not favor the opposition.
If the opposition wants to be competitive, they still have a long way to go, since they need to make a profound change, a new and attractive proposal that will seduce the electorate, but they refuse to accept it. Morena represents a new party, and a hope for Mexico.
#shot