Doctor of Medical Sciences, infectious disease specialist Nikolai Malyshev in an interview with Sputnik radio predicted the timing of Russia’s exit to a plateau on the coronavirus.
According to him, the number of discharged patients after COVID-19 has begun to grow slightly, but so far it is far from a plateau.
Plateau is when how many got sick [за сутки], so much was written out. When these figures are equal, it will be good. Then the number of those discharged will begin to exceed the number of cases.
Malyshev added that for the healthcare system and the doctors who treat the infected, the ratio between the number of hospitalized and discharged from hospitals per day is more important. He stressed that today significantly more people are hospitalized than discharged. “While COVID-19 patients pile up [в больницах]the load on the hospital network is growing,” he explained.
The infectious disease specialist noted that patients will continue to “accumulate” in hospitals for another three to four weeks. After that, we can expect a cessation of the increase in the incidence, and then an improvement in the epidemiological situation, the specialist noted.
I think that this situation will continue for another three or four weeks. Then we will reach the plateau and it will be easier
The situation with COVID-19 in Russia
The head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova said that the situation with the incidence of coronavirus in Russia is characterized by an increase that has been going on for four weeks, but last week for the first time there was a decrease in the growth rate.
There is a growth rate, of course, but it is 63 percent in contrast to the previous two weeks, where there was a doubling every week. Although the total number of daily reported cases is, of course, unprecedentedly high
Popova clarified that growth is observed in 84 subjects of Russia, with the exception of Moscow. In the capital, the decline was 5.7 percent. She also noted that growth is observed in all age groups.
Deputy Director for Clinical and Analytical Work of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, Professor Natalia Pshenichnaya, in turn, said that in Russia there is a tendency to stabilize the situation with the spread of coronavirus.
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The specialist noted that a large number of citizens managed to get sick with the omicron strain and the level of collective immunity to COVID-19 in Russia has reached a decent level.
Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that the situation with the coronavirus pandemic in the country remains difficult. According to him, in such conditions, mutual assistance and solidarity are necessary.
The Russian leader noted that the whole world is currently undergoing tests of the COVID-19 pandemic. He added that at the moment positive developments are important, which can serve as a fulcrum.
Recession forecasts
The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev, said that the decline in the incidence of COVID-19 in Russia will occur by the end of February. He noted that, according to RDIF estimates, the peak incidence of omicron will pass in the country this week.
By the end of February, we expect a significant decrease in new cases. The use of the Sputnik V and Sputnik Light vaccines helped Russia cope with omicron much better than most countries
Mikhail Shchelkanov, Director of the Somov Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology of Rospotrebnadzor, Head of the Department of Epidemiology of the FEFU School of Biomedicine, believes that the current peak in the incidence of coronavirus will decline by the end of February and the beginning of March.
The specialist said that now the country is experiencing a “winter” epidemic increase in the incidence of acute respiratory diseases. According to him, during the January holidays, “a certain local minimum” occurs, which is due to the fact that during this period citizens do not want to waste time visiting doctors. However, by January 25, there is a stable pseudo-exponential increase in the incidence.
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Shchelkanov noted that after the decline in the winter peak, a slight increase in the incidence is expected in March-April. Russia will reach a local minimum of cases by summer, the specialist added.
Impact of vaccination
Immunologist-allergist Vladimir Bolibok said that due to the boom in vaccination in late November – early December 2021, it is expected that the peak of the omicron strain of coronavirus in Russia will be smoothed out.
According to him, scientists tested how vaccination works on a new South African strain. It turned out that people who were vaccinated recently, within a month and a half, are partially protected from infection.
People who were vaccinated recently, that is, a month and a half ago, are protected from infection, and then the effect is already lost. We have a huge number of people vaccinated in late November – early December. Therefore, perhaps, our omicron peak will be slightly smoothed out, and all this will go easier
Bolibok recommended that those who were vaccinated more than six months ago undergo urgent revaccination.
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