Abu Dhabi (Al Ittihad)
Important conclusions reached by experts and academic researchers from several countries, during a symposium held by the “Trends Center for Research and Consultation” in cooperation with “Al-Ittihad” newspaper, the day before yesterday, Tuesday, under the title “Efforts and initiatives for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa .. assessing roles and interests”, the most important of which The need to encourage internal dialogue and confidence-building measures between the governments of the Horn of Africa in order to lay the foundations for regional integration and economic cooperation, to establish a mechanism for settling disputes between the countries of the Horn of Africa, and to provide political support for the role of the African Union in resolving disputes in the Horn of Africa.
The symposium presented by Alia Al-Junaibi, Head of the Strategic Communication Department at “Trends”, in which the participants concluded the need to reduce rivalries between countries, which lead to destabilization in the Horn of Africa, by coordinating common positions between external parties, and the importance of coordinating regional and international efforts aimed at Combating piracy and protecting maritime security in the Horn of Africa, adopting agreed joint collective mechanisms to achieve this goal, and the need to urgently address the threats of climate change, by increasing humanitarian aid, and strengthening cooperation with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in East Africa (IGAD).
geostrategic importance
The symposium activities began with a welcome speech by Dr. Muhammad Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of Trends, during which he referred to the great geostrategic importance of the Horn of Africa, stressing that the symposium discusses how to achieve stability, peace and development in the Horn of Africa, which is of great strategic importance to Africa and the Middle East. and the world as a whole, and how to coordinate external efforts, initiatives and roles aimed at achieving this goal, in order to achieve the best possible results. He said that this geostrategic importance of the Horn of Africa has made it an international point of attraction, and an arena for political competition between regional and international powers over presence and influence in it in order to preserve their interests. Rather, it went as far as major countries, such as the United States, China, and Britain, to send special envoys to the Horn of Africa, to confirm the importance it enjoys, within their global strategies.
Historical connection
Under the title: “Stability in the Horn of Africa: Determinants, Causes, and Motives,” the interventions of the first session, moderated by Rahaf Al-Khazraji, Deputy Director of the Scientific Publishing Department at “Trends,” began, during which she emphasized that the region’s connection to the Horn of Africa is a historical one, and it is a cooperation that extends for a century.
Caleb DeMero, a researcher at the University of South Florida, USA, presented a working paper on “Elites and Violence: Institutional Determinants of Political Stability in the Horn of Africa” – in which he concluded that state-building in the region is complex. Therefore, development policies that take into account the nature of states must be implemented, rather than trying to copy and paste institutional structures from the West.
colonial deposits
Also speaking at the first session, Alexei Ylonen, a researcher at the Center for International Studies at the University of Lisbon, Portugal, said that by looking at some of the indicators monitored in the Horn of Africa today, we notice the fragility of some countries, such as Somalia and South Sudan, and this weakness is a legacy left by the past, and Ylonen added that there are dynamics Certain factors contribute to instability in that region, including the marginalization of different groups of society, adding that this dates back to the colonial period.
Ylonen said: “We set out from colonialism to the Cold War, which also has an impact on the Horn of Africa region, and the external interference this region witnessed during this era in the context of competition between major powers and proxy wars, which constitutes causes for instability and conflict, indicating that When developing solutions to the chronic crisis, one must realize the weakness of these countries, the potential negative effects of external interventions, and the importance of working to strengthen the legitimacy of the countries of the Horn of Africa.
the pirate
The second session discussed: “Maritime Security and Piracy in the Horn of Africa: Challenges and How to Confront”, and it was moderated by Leonardo Jacopo, researcher at the Strategic Studies Department at “Trends”, in which he indicated that although the maritime security initiatives implemented by regional and international bodies have proven effective In the face of Somali piracy, the maritime space off the Horn of Africa is far from being a trouble-free zone.
“third parties”
Dr. Ole Beka Sursa, Assistant Professor in the Homeland Security Program at Rabdan Academy, confirmed that the Horn of Africa region is vital to maritime security, and important to international trade and transport, but it is still very dangerous, indicating that this is due to it being a link between the continents of Asia and Europe through the Middle East, and added When talking about piracy in the Gulf of Aden, the vicinity of the Horn of Africa has not witnessed many piracy incidents since 2018, mainly due to the “third parties” combating piracy in the region, and these parties include the international navy, especially the US Navy, France, and the Kingdom The United Nations, and some Asian navies, including the Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and Indonesian navies, stressing that these navies play an important role in unilateral measures to combat piracy, along with multilateral measures, and most importantly the mission of the European Union. Moreover, many commercial organizations have played a very prominent, yet controversial, role in combating piracy.
“blue crime”
Timothy Peter Edmunds, Professor of International Security at the University of Bristol in the UK, confirmed that while piracy off the coast of Somalia has been largely contained, there are still multiple maritime threats and insecurity, explaining that international cooperation between the public and private sectors has been a key factor in the success of anti-piracy operations. Edmunds noted the continuity of maritime criminal networks, and the emergence of other forms of blue crime, including illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, and smuggling of various kinds.
Stabilization initiatives
The third session of the symposium stopped at “efforts and initiatives to secure peace and stability in the Horn of Africa: rationale and interests.” It was moderated by Sultan Majid Muhammad, Deputy Director of the Global Barometer at Trends, stressing that the motives behind the unstable history of the Horn of Africa show us the possibility of conflicts erupting in the region. Horn of Africa in neighboring countries and the impact on the entire region through refugee flows and political instability, indicating that this axis will discuss the efforts and initiatives of third parties, and assess whether these efforts are effective in preventing the escalation of conflict and laying the foundations for peace and security in the future.
China-Africa Partnership
Marco Di Lido, the analyst in charge of the Africa office at the Center for International Studies (CESI) in Italy, gave a presentation entitled “Strategic Competition in the Horn of Africa: Approaches and Goals of China, Russia, the United States, the European Union and Italy,” in which he touched on the Chinese role, which depends on three strategies, It is continuity, enhancement, and expansion. He said the new partnerships for development between China and Africa seek to increase bilateral trade, improve multi-level governance (local, regional and global), cooperate in security and military assistance, and enhance political and social participation. He said that there are obstacles to the development of the Chinese-African partnership, the most important of which are the post-pandemic challenges, the war in Ukraine, and the resulting state of economic uncertainty, in addition to the political challenges and competition with the United States.
De Lido indicated that the administration of US President Biden is adopting a new African strategy based on three methods: the first is the passive approach by confronting governmental and non-governmental threats (terrorism, China, Russia), the second is the active approach by working on common agendas, such as climate change, peace and security. And the third is decentralization, where the attempt to renew the image of the United States in Africa begins through the new American pluralism, with the European Union lacking an integrated approach towards the Horn of Africa. And he indicated that the top priorities of the European Union’s agenda in the region depend on preventing illegal immigration, alleviating the humanitarian crisis, and combating terrorism, instability and piracy.
regional positions
Federico Donelli from the University of Genoa, Italy, presented an intervention entitled “Efforts and Initiatives to Secure Peace and Stability in the Horn of Africa: Rationale and Interests”, during which he concluded that the Turkish approach depends on dealing with the issue individually, and employing the role of mediator and negotiating with Ethiopia on multiple issues (infrastructure industrial clusters and weapons), but there is no coordination with other actors outside the region. The Turkish side has experience in water policy issues, the relationship with the African Union, and the ability to bargain with Ethiopia. However, he failed due to his weak conviction and resources, lack of knowledge of the big picture, and limited communication with Sudan and Egypt. Donnelly stopped at the position of the UAE, indicating that its approach depends on gaining the confidence of all parties, and focusing on finding a negotiated solution to the region’s crises.
A positive role for the UAE
Dr. Brendon Cannon, Assistant Professor at Khalifa University, explained in his intervention that there are many conflicts that undermine stability in the Horn of Africa, and perhaps the most important of them now: the conflict in Ethiopia, where the war over many years has destabilized the region, and the conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan on the border . Although they reached an agreement, this agreement increased hostility between the government and the Tigray Front. Canon touched on the parties that play the role of mediation, appreciating the positive role of the UAE, indicating that it enjoys good relations with various parties, so it can play a constructive role in this dispute. The same applies to the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Cannon spoke about the efforts of the (3+) mediation group, which proposed items to the Security Council to defuse the crisis. He also stressed the role of the African Union in conflict resolution.
Closing recommendations
At a round table moderated by Dr. Benjamin Davis, an economist at the Trends Center, the participants discussed “Future Efforts and Initiatives to Secur Peace and Stability in the Horn of Africa: A Proposed Road Map.” They presented recommendations that emphasized the importance of helping build institutional and technical capacities to strengthen the authority of national governments, and increase their flexibility and ability to act. Dealing with external challenges, and the need to reduce destabilizing rivalries in the Horn of Africa, by coordinating common positions between external parties, and proposing the establishment of a regional fund for economic development funded by the League of Arab States, the United Nations, the African Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council, to promote economic growth and stability in the region. Horn of Africa. This fund will focus on sectors that provide employment opportunities (such as agriculture and industry), and support partnerships between the public and private sectors to implement regionally integrated electricity and transportation networks. In addition to urgently addressing the threats of climate change, including drought, food insecurity and desertification, by increasing humanitarian aid, and strengthening cooperation with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in East Africa (IGAD).
The experts recommended coordinating regional and international efforts aimed at combating piracy and achieving maritime security in the Horn of Africa, adopting joint collective mechanisms agreed upon to achieve this goal, and raising the level of national technical capabilities in the field of maritime security through technical support from a third party and cooperation between the public and private sectors to enhance port security. , law enforcement training, and capacity building. The participants called for setting up a mechanism for settling disputes between the countries of the Horn of Africa and providing the necessary support to ensure the effectiveness of this mechanism, and the importance of providing political support for the role of the African Union in resolving existing conflicts in the Horn of Africa, and linking new foreign development aid (with the exception of urgent and humanitarian aid) to improvements in transparency, accountability and sovereignty. Law.
The experts stressed the need to encourage internal dialogue and confidence-building measures between the governments of the Horn of Africa in order to lay the foundations for regional integration and economic cooperation, by increasing international coordination and encouraging major powers to reduce bilateral strategic competition. Participants in the symposium proposed the formation of a security grouping “similar to the G5 Sahel group, for example” to manage cooperation between countries in the region to combat terrorism, address other security issues, and work to institutionalize strategic dialogue with external parties. The experts participating in the symposium called for the development of media strategies to strengthen the common cultural and historical relations between the peoples of the Horn of Africa.
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