HS interview In August 2008, the new Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb gave a speech in 080808, in which he assessed the war in Georgia as a turning point – but it was only the prelude to a “time of unrest” fueled by Russia.

Alexander Stubb sits at an Espoo kitchen table and presents three possible options.

“The first is Russia’s defeat and massive retreat, but it’s perhaps the least likely,” Stubb says.

“Another option is for Russia to take over Ukraine as a whole. The third is that Russia is quitting and trying to give birth to eastern Ukraine and western Ukraine. ”

“Of course I hope for the first, and I’m afraid for the second,” Stubb continues.

“But I could imagine that the third option could be pretty close to the truth, even though I really don’t want it. This is about the existence of an independent, sovereign state. ”

Stubb cannot know how the war in Ukraine will end in the end. No one else knows that.

However, 53-year-old Stubb has the means to know how this situation has come about.

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“I’m constantly trying to explain that it makes a difference whether this discussion is from London, Washington or Paris or from Helsinki.”

Espoo at the kitchen table, two Alexander Stubbs speak in a way.

The first Stubb is a former prime minister and foreign minister. He has held many other positions, but those two portfolios are the most relevant in the context of Russia.

Another Stubb is a professor. He lives most of his time in Florence, where he runs the EU University Center. He is also working on a book called The New World Disorder. Power in the 21st Century. (A New World Disorder. Power in the 21st Century.)

“Yes, the books are going to be new here,” Stubb says. “As the world books go.”

However, there is no time to write right now. Stubb’s calendar these days looks like this: BBC, CNN, The Atlantic, France24, Radio Canada, Sky, MSNBC, Swedish TV, Danish TV, Polish TV.

Among other things, Stubb tells the international audience about Finland’s position.

“I am constantly trying to explain that it makes a difference whether this debate is taking place in London, Washington or Paris, for example, or in Helsinki. If there are 1,340 kilometers of borders with Russia, the world will look different. ”

Stubb has had a discussion in Finland as well, also in unusual places. Finns are understandably sensitive. On the ski slopes in Espoo, Stubb has been stopped, that’s how it goes.

Let’s get back politician Stubbiin.

Stubb was appointed foreign minister in April 2008 after he had just turned his forties.

In those days, a summit of the Defense League NATO was held in Bucharest with the guest of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.

“Let’s be friends, guys, and be straight and open,” Putin said.

Putin said Russia was opposed to Georgia’s and Ukraine’s rapprochement with NATO. “The emergence of a strong military alliance at our country’s borders is seen as a direct threat to my country’s security.”

In August, Russian armor rolled in Georgia’s five-day war. It was a shock to the western world.

Finland was the OSCE chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, so Foreign Minister Stubb moved from Sardinia to a peace negotiator during the summer holidays. The mission took Georgia to Tbilisi and then to Moscow.

Georgian after the war, Stubb gave perhaps his most famous speech, the so-called 080808 speech at the Ambassadors’ Day in Helsinki. The series comes from the fact that Russia attacked on August 8, 2008.

The Georgian crisis has three harsh lessons, Stubb said in a speech:

“One: 080808 is a turning point in international politics. Two: 080808 poses a new challenge to the international system. And three: 080808 affects Finland’s foreign and security policy agenda. ”

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The three-handed speech will take a critical reading 13 years later. Foreign Minister Stubb’s analysis was correct.

Among other things, Stubb estimates that autocracy is challenging democracy and that 21st century dictators have plenty of money and nationalist protective armor.

“Georgia’s war can only have one positive consequence,” Stubb said. “It should be a foreign policy alarm clock.”

The three-handed speech will take a critical reading 13 years later. Foreign Minister Stubb’s analysis was correct.

But Has the right analysis guided Finland’s security policy? Stubb was involved in building it during his ministerial years.

“Yes, I would still see the whole body of our foreign and security and defense policy strategy as a credible independent defense,” Stubb says.

“There are not two words that it was not done right. Without Russia, we wouldn’t have just bought 64 F-35 fighters. ”

Finland has sought refuge in many directions, including from the European Union, and has been building NATO co-operation for a long time.

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Has the right analysis guided Finland’s security policy? “There are not two words that it was not done correctly.”

“After all, we are more NATO-compatible than many NATO countries themselves,” Stubb notes. “So I would say that a minimum level of security is guaranteed by our strategy.”

It is still it is worth asking that when the foreign policy alarm clock rang, there was sometimes too much temptation to press the snooze switch.

In December 2014 – shortly after Russia had occupied the Crimean peninsula and incited an uprising in eastern Ukraine – Finland granted a permit in principle to Fennovoima, the Pyhäjoki nuclear power plant to be built by the Russian Rosatom.

Prime Minister Stubb was pushing for a decision in parliament. He criticized “Russophobia” for those MPs who raised concerns about Russia. The authorization in principle was finally approved by a vote of 115-74.

“In light of the information available, the decision was made then,” Stubb says. “In hindsight, the decision was a mistake, and luckily it can now be corrected.”

“It’s a cold fact to look in the mirror. If you take a position as prime minister that deviates from the baseline, you will find it in front of you. And well, that’s part of democracy. “

080808In his speech, Stubb noted that a new era had begun that did not yet have a name.

Now one would be available. Let’s move from ex-politician Stubb to Professor Stubb.

“An era of unrest,” Stubb says. “It means that today everything can be armed: disinformation, energy, technology, the economy, social media.”

The line between war and peace is often drawn in the water, Stubb says, except, of course, in Ukraine right now, when Russia is waging a brutal war of aggression.

Stubb talks about “over-rationalizing the past”. It is easy to analyze the trajectories that have led to the present in retrospect. Even in hindsight, it could be said.

The first was the bipolar world of the Cold War, from 1989 to the unipolar world.

“Our whole thinking was based on the transition of all 200 nation states to some kind of liberal democracy, a social market economy and globalization – bringing the world together, technology, the internet, free trade and production chains to bring us together as a global nation and moving towards conflict.”

Stubb continues:

“It should have been noticed that the situation changed in July 2001. The values ​​we call universal did not work for everyone. There was a confrontation of civilizations, a confrontation of religions, a geographical confrontation. ”

“Putin by no means wants liberal democracy and a world of values. He is a Russian conservative of discipline and order, who sees Western culture as a kind of degeneration. ”

NATO is actually a stick horse, Stubb says. The European trend in Ukraine was a problem for Putin.

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“You should have noticed that the situation changed in July 2001.”

Now we are then in a situation that Stubb compares as a generational experience to 1989. This time the experience just is chilling.

The West has begun to isolate Russia completely, politically, economically, sportingly and culturally.

“We don’t know what the duration of this isolation is,” Stubb says. It depends on Russia and is therefore a mystery.

“Russia’s change cannot be done from the outside.”

Since Finland has to think carefully about all its transfers, Stubb is sharpening demands for sudden action, such as the NATO membership application right now. Stubb emphasizes that he does not want to be wise about future solutions.

“I think the state leadership has worked calmly and moderately in a very difficult place, and that’s what we need now. I’m sure they will [presidentti ja hallitus] make the right decisions. ”

We live an era of unrest, and even more so the need for basic national goods.

“Now you just have to be moderate and calm, that is, after all, quite Finnish.”