In the midst of a state of emergency and within the framework of the greatest crisis of insecurity and violence13.4 million Ecuadorians go to the polls today to elect a president and vice president, and 137 assembly members who, starting next November, will take office until May 24, 2025. In addition, two consultations on mining will also be voted on.
(Also: Ecuadorian presidential candidate denounces a shooting near the place where he had breakfast)
Uncertainty marks this election in which eight formulas seek to govern the country for 18 months and which leaves the aspirations of the presidential candidate FFernando Villavicencio, who was assassinated on August 9 by Colombian hitmen as he left an electoral rally in Quito.
The crime not only shocked the country, but also moved the chips on the political board. Until before the assassination, the candidate Luisa González, of the Citizen Revolution, a movement led by former President Rafael Correa, led the polls with 26.6 percent, according to Cedatos. The firm, however, positioned it last Wednesday at 24 percent, two points below.
(You can read: “They tried to kill me”: mayor of province in Ecuador denounces attack against him)
As the director of the Click Report firm, Francis Romero Cordero, pointed out to EL TIEMPO, in addition to the Villavicencio episode, the mandatory debate that the candidates staged last Sunday also changed the electoral photography. Click Report even predicted on Friday that González’s voting intention could drop as much as 21 percent.
Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated in Quito.
EFE and Galo Paguay, from AFP
The debate left many more doubts than certainties, but it managed that certain candidates manage to position their messages in a better way and attract the attention of the electorate
“The debate left many more doubts than certainties, but it managed to get certain candidates to better position their messages and attract the attention of the electorate,” said Romero in dialogue with this newspaper.
Second place in the polls is closer. Villavicencio’s face will appear on the electoral ballot this Sunday and although he was not releasing his intention to vote at the time of his murder, “he had significant support and was in the fight to reach second place. And there were four candidates who were disputing for second place, that is, the pass to the second round”, says Romero.
(Of interest: Fernando Villavicencio’s family denounces President Lasso for murder by omission)
It is not clear to what extent Christian Zurita, the candidate who will replace him in the presidential aspiration, to capitalize on the voters he amassed in these last months of the campaign. However, some analysts consider that there could be a kind of “mourning vote” to support Zurita as a tribute to the assassinated candidate and boost his aspirations.
In fact, V.Illavicencio was in something of a technical deadlock with Jan Topic, a 40-year-old ex-military officer who aspires to lead Ecuadorians with his strong-armed speech against organized crime and drug cartels.
(Also read: Wave of violence in Ecuador triggers sales of armored cars and bulletproof vests)
According to Click Report, Topic could reach up to 18 percent in voting intention. While the candidate Daniel Noboa Azín, son of magnate Álvaro Noboa, would compete for third place with the indigenous activist and former presidential candidate Yaku Pérez; and with Otto Sonnenholzner who was vice president in the government of Lenin Moreno. All of them are trying to capture more than 40 percent undecided. Further back are Xavier Hervas, from the Reto movement, and Bolívar Armijos, from the Friend movement.
![Christian Zurita](https://www.eltiempo.com/files/article_vertical_content_new/files/crop/uploads/2023/08/13/64d9308fb87a3.r_1692493654195.350-0-1683-2008.jpeg)
EFE/ Fernando Gimeno
However, Francis Romero said that until two days ago there was a growth in Noboa’s candidacy and that it could reach up to 17 percent in the intention to vote, very close to Topic.
In any case, it does not seem that any of them achieves more than 40 percent of the votes and a difference of at least ten points to win in the first round. Everything indicates that there will be a second round on October 15 between the two most voted candidates.
The high rates of violence and insecurity, institutional instability, corruption, and poverty and unemployment figures have combined in a brew of anguish and mistrust for Ecuadorians who only 37 percent believe in democracy and 50 percent believe in democracy. percent would support a military government, as described in a latest Latinbarómetro report on the Democratic Recession in Latin America.
(Also read: Ecuadorian Authority approves candidacy to replace Fernando Villavicencio)
In addition, the recent crime against Villavicencio that shook the campaign would be pushing the options of the candidates who opt for a firm hand speech.
“These are completely atypical elections, in a basically horrifying situation that Ecuador is going through due to the violence that had been installed, but which manifests itself in a more acute and atrocious way with the murder” of Villavicencio, political scientist Anamaría Correa told the AFP news agency. Crespo, coordinator of International Relations at the San Francisco de Quito University.
While for the analyst Blasco Peñaherrera Solah, correísmo could receive a “punishment” at the polls. “We are going to have an emotional vote” as happened in 1990 in Colombia, when the liberal César Gaviria was elected after occupying the position of Luis Carlos Galán, a former journalist who faced drug trafficking and was assassinated by hitmen.
For his part, former President Correa considered that Villavicencio “was a political crime to blame us, harm us and prevent our victory in a single round. They sacrificed a human being. They have no limits or scruples ”he pointed out on social networks.
![Ecuador](https://www.eltiempo.com/files/article_content_new/uploads/2023/08/17/64deb346d6054.jpeg)
Police guard the closure of the campaign of the journalist and presidential candidate for the Construye party, Christian Zurita.
early elections
These early presidential elections are an atypical election driven by the “cross death”a constitutional figure for which President Guillermo Lasso opted to dissolve the Assembly citing “serious political crisis and internal commotion” and call early elections to renew the Executive and Legislative.
The measure, unprecedented in this country, was an action taken on May 17 by the president who was on the verge of dismissal, accused of crimes against the public administration and alleged embezzlement in a contract for the transportation of oil, in a impeachment brought by an opposition parliamentary majority.
“Lasso leaves a country impoverished and jobless,” but perhaps most worrisome is that the people who aspire to the presidency have said little or nothing about how they will deal with these problems, wrote economics expert Andrés Mideros in an opinion column.
(Keep reading: Ecuador: ‘While the State has been lost, crime has been well organized’)
According to their figures, 4.8 million people in Ecuador are living in poverty. Figure that increased by 360,000 people last year. In rural areas the situation is more serious. Poverty increased from 42.9 percent in June 2022 to 46.4 percent in June 2023.
In addition, the country has a homicide rate that is around 26 per 100,000 inhabitants and that could reach 40 by the end of 2023. The wave of violence has worsened due to the drug cartels that have turned Ecuador into a major distribution center for cocaine to Europe and the United States.
Deadly shootings have become frequent, mainly in Guayaquil, a major port city in the southwest of the country. Clashes between criminal gangs have also led to repeated prison massacres, with at least 430 inmates killed since February 2021.
“We are experiencing very hard times for our democracy,” says political scientist Correa Crespo, for whom “the penetration of drug trafficking in Ecuador (…) has been going on for several years. It has been a perhaps silent phenomenon, but it is demonstrating its power”.
5 questions to: Máximo Zaldívar
Máximo Zaldívar is the regional director for Latin America and the Caribbean International Foundation for Electoral Systems (Ifes), which supports electoral processes and provides technical assistance.
Do you think Ecuadorians are scared to go out and vote?
The truth is that the assassinations of candidates in Latin America are very impressive, but something like this has not been seen for a long time. The last most remembered are those of Colosia, in Mexico, and that of Galán, in Colombia. It is striking in the case of Fernando Villavicencio that they ran in the capital and it is more striking for having been in Quito.
Although I think there will be some fear, I don’t think it will generate a massive distancing of the electorate and I think this can encourage citizens more (to go to the polls).
Is some kind of excesses expected in the country?
I do not believe that the voting centers will be the target of an attack. The first message (after the crime against Villavicencio) was very forceful not to suspend the electoral calendar and keep the dates. All the guarantees are being given and the public force is being closely coordinated.
What are the president’s challenges?
The next president will govern for 18 months. It could be seen as an interim or transitory presidency for the short time it will have. That, however, can help the transition with the process in 2025. In principle, the biggest challenge will be to combat the scourge of violence and crime.
Is there expected to be an increase in polarization in Ecuador as has been seen in other countries?
Polarization is a trend in the region and the United States. In some countries it is lived with different intensity. Let us hope that the polarization will not escalate; I do not think so. I think it will be a good choice and that, on the contrary, it will calm society down. We must recognize the work that the National Electoral Council has done, which has made an effort to counter disinformation. Something new is that electronic voting abroad was established.
Could the recent crime in Villavicencio lead to results that are different from what the polls predict?
The field of polls is delicate and lately we have seen that they have failed. It is increasingly difficult what can set a trend because citizens now think more about voting and are less influenced. We don’t know what can happen. The candidates are very even and in a situation like this there can be surprises.
ANA LUCIA ROMAN
FOR THE TIME
REMOVED
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