Potential show
Imola does not betray expectations, and on a splendid Friday it shows a previously unseen scenario with splendid potential for the rest of the weekend if at least part of the values seen on the track during the two free practice sessions are confirmed. It is very difficult, in fact, to establish a favorite for the first European race. On the one hand, Verstappen and his Red Bull appeared in clear difficulty, unable to find a way to make the RB20 work properly. On the other hand, McLaren seems to confirm that it is truly fast, and the updated SF24 has given its drivers top-level ideas, with Leclerc confident in a way we haven’t seen him for a long time. Mercedes also tries to appear (a little timidly) in the positions that count, with Lewis Hamilton who seems to get excited from a driving point of view in the second half of the lap on the Emilian track, therefore trying to mix the cards up a bit more if possible. It is difficult to think of a more potentially exciting situation than this on the eve of an important Grand Prix, but, obviously, caution remains a must.
RedBull far away on the clock, suffers from the combination of accelerations
The crisis on Friday of the World Champion team appeared to be a puzzle for Verstappen and his engineers, who tried a bit of everything but without yet finding the key to the problem. The main problem appears to be the balance of the car, but not due to one axle regularly being stronger than the other, but to the continuous alternation of oversteer and understeer, often in an unpredictable manner, which makes the single-seater extremely difficult for the driver to drive. The impression is that the RB20 is currently suffering a lot from longitudinal load transfers, so during braking the rear unloads too much and tends to break down, generating oversteer, but when the driver returns to the throttle in the entry or center phase When cornering, it seems as if the front is suddenly unloading, thus generating sudden understeer, with the car becoming uncontrollable. This would also explain why Verstappen was very strong in the first sector, where Tamburello and Villeneuve are curves with a more classic layout and the greatest load is lateral, while from Tosa onwards, between ups and downs and particular track geometries, both accelerations and lateral and longitudinal, causing a crisis in the aerodynamic system of Newey’s car. The Milton Keynes team will therefore have to try to “overturn” the car’s set-up, but the news is that the gap from Ferrari and McLaren is currently around 4-5 tenths both on the flying lap and on the race pace, so even if the feat succeeds (as we expect, given how many times Horner’s engineers have been able to make the most of their work on the track) they should arrive on par with rival teams, and certainly not with the sidereal advantages seen on other occasions.
Ferrari and McLaren really at the top, but the tendency is to converge
One of the historical challenges seems about to arise again for important and not secondary objectives. McLaren’s technical progress is now tangible and the Imola track is currently certifying it. The updated MCL38 is perfectly balanced and the updates appear to provide greater efficiency as well as allowing a fraction of the car’s downforce to be lightened without compromising balance, resulting in greater downforce. The updated Ferrari for its part seems to work perfectly, with a perfect balance between the axles, and at the same time a good load and a lot of grip, as is enhanced by the transition to Tosa, where Leclerc makes the difference in the speed of travel, given indicative given the very long geometry of the curve. Ultimately however, looking at the performance load indicators analysed, what we notice is that the large differences seen in the past are tending to disappear. Among the 4 cars analyzed, McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull, there is only 1 km/h difference in maximum speed, with the load indicators almost overlapping with each other. The differences are becoming so narrow that set-ups and mechanical response, in addition to aerodynamic stability, are becoming fundamental, an aspect that is particularly paid attention to in Maranello after the serious deficiency in this field of the SF23. The result is that the SF24 has particularly stable high-energy aerodynamics which somehow resists well even external disturbances, such as the wind, so much so that in the first free practice session, the cars of Sainz and Leclerc were the ones least influenced by the strong wind that swept the circuit.
McLaren-Ferrari still challenges race pace
Finally, in the race pace simulations, the data still shows a balance between the Woking team and the Maranello team, albeit with different characteristics. Ferrari seemed to have, especially with Leclerc, a slightly higher peak performance but with slightly less consistency of performance (even though all the times were influenced by the heavy traffic on the track). The stints of Piastri and especially Norris are instead a masterpiece of consistency, just a tenth slower on average than Leclerc. Mercedes has an average close to the leaders but with a fluctuating performance, and the impression is that the Brackley team’s car can stay close until the last tenths need to be squeezed out, especially in qualifying, where the opponents have a margin of broader improvement.
Fundamental qualification
If all these premises are respected, the potential is for a McLaren-Ferrari, and possibly RedBull, challenge once the right fit with the car’s set-up has been found. At that point there would be a more than exciting challenge on the track between 3 teams for the victory. Given the current balance and the not entirely easy overtaking on the track named after Enzo and Dino Ferrari, the position on the grid will take on a significant impact on the progress of the weekend, making qualifying even more interesting and significant. For anyone who is a fan or enthusiast of Formula 1, the hope can only be to see these premises respected and a great show on the track.
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