Since he won the presidency on August 20 until he assumed it at an unusual time in the early hours of this January 15, Bernardo Arévalo survived the stubborn snipers of democracy commanded by prosecutor Consuelo Porras, whose very high-powered rifles have been openly or covertly nurtured by corrupt politicians, rancid oligarchies and powerful drug traffickers. Arévalo would not have fought it without the protection of the indigenous peoples and the international community, who became the kryptonite of the Corrupt Pact. After almost two weeks of his government being installed, the clouds of uncertainty begin to rise from the rooftops of the centers of power, but at the same time they become grayer and denser. I don't foresee dramatic scenarios for now, although I do see bizarre incidents.
1. The labyrinth of grays
The spring wind of change offered by Arévalo and his Semilla Movement party is breathed like a diffuse aroma and penetrates even the darkest centers of power of the old corrupt and authoritarian regime, but the political standard-bearers of change are not clear how to exercise the hegemony to which Popular fatigue has catapulted them against the system, a system that does not implode and, rather, seeks to be resilient. The gray tones win because the revolving door of bureaucracy effectively operates, which, instead of materializing the changes, dilutes them. The incendiary anonymous social networks are territories of crossfire between staunch enemies, but also between supposed allies; Misinformation confuses and paralyzes society. Credible media are displaced by the new Government. Gray agents do not solve or dissolve problems, they pile them under the carpet.
Probability: very high.
2. Mosquito storms
The Corrupt Pact incessantly bombarded the democratic transition without understanding that, if it did not win, it would lose. Political time is never neutral. He arrived on January 14 – the day in Guatemala when the leadership of Congress is elected and the President is sworn in – confident that his machinery would move motivated solely by the interest of defending ill-gotten privileges, and he was wrong. The new legislature that took office made this evident. The “mosquito storm” scenario has as its premise that the Pact corrects its strategy and returns to its old ways of fueling the corruption of the deputies to collapse the Arévalo Government. But, just as in the transition, they are racing against the clock, they need results in the short term: indicators of bogging down of the new Administration and the breakdown of its morale, revealing petty corruption and abuses. If the trap fails, the radical ideological opposition remains stubborn, lighting candles for Donald Trump, that is, betting on variables beyond his control, but without constituting the legion of mosquitoes that distracts the Arevalistas.
Probability: high
3. Bet on another democratic transition
The veteran circle of President Arévalo and, on the other hand, the young politicians who make up the Semilla bloc in Congress agree—despite their differences in the forms of management and distribution of positions—on a historical reason for the exercise of power in this period: encourage spaces for civil and political liberties for the training and organization of youth, indigenous movements, women and identities, migrants and intellectuals. It is the bet on the spiritual democratic spring of the 21st century; an escape towards the democratic future capable of mobilizing internal energies and international support. It serves to weather the storms of the inevitable internal political disputes, conspiracies and hate campaigns of its far-right adversaries.
Probability: half
4. The stubborn dreams of defenestration
The hard core of the coup plotters remains alive and active, assimilating some setbacks in the courts and the defenestration of their icon of impunity, prosecutor Consuelo Porras. His lobbyists in Washington are excited that the end of the tunnel will come with Trump and that the impeachment trial against Arévalo and his party is just around the corner. Meanwhile, war drums continue to thunder in Congress and social networks to maintain the destabilizing interest of their major sponsors. Although the DNA of the full restoration of the corruption regime remains alive, international sanctions undermine them, as some of their affected clients look to Arévalo to reverse them.
Probability of success: medium – low
Edgar Gutierrez He is a political analyst and former foreign minister of Guatemala.
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