In this scenario, the future interest rate curve is also affected, says the bank in the Market Thermometer
The exchange rate has been responding to fiscal uncertainty, Itaú BBA indicates in a report released to clients and the market this week. In this scenario, the future interest rate curve is also affected, the bank states in the Market Thermometer.
“Thus, we begin the month of July without respite, with our eyes on yet another round of indicators, with fiscal uncertainty as the main catalyst for the strengthening of the dollar against the real, putting pressure on inflation expectations and, ultimately, on the trajectory of the Selic rate,” says in the document.
According to the bank, “the risk ahead is that the absence or insufficiency of responses to the fiscal issue will continue to drive the deterioration of the exchange rate, which reinforces the perspective embedded in the interest rate curve of an increase in the Selic rate this year, leading to another round of devaluation here”.
Itaú BBA also cites the scenario priced in the average Selic rate curves of 10.75% per year for the 2nd half of this year, 11.75% in the 1st half of 2025 and 12.25% in the 2nd half of next year.
With information from Investing Brazil.
#Fiscal #uncertainty #main #catalyst #dollar #Itaú
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