Last act of the duel between Ferrari and Mercedes. As often happens with challenges that continue until the decisive confrontation, any verdict will be affected by the more or less fortuitous episodes recounted during the year. There is no trophy up for grabs for the Brackley and Maranello teams, but rather a symbolic title in recognition of the recovery work carried out during the year. Because if the one who makes the least mistakes wins, this does not mean that the efforts of those who have tried to remedy their mistakes should be overlooked.
Change to fix it
Enzo Ferrari claimed that the latter was the first of the losers. A cynical vision, in some ways representative of a competition in which a single winner is celebrated, whose value however also emerges from that of his opponents. The first of the chasers would be an alternative epithet for the second placed, but not particularly accurate if you look at current values. The points gained since July reveal how currently McLaren is on average the second force in the field. Furthermore, its position remains to be confirmed for 2024, with work on new cars which could mix up values again.
The title up for grabs in Abu Dhabi for Mercedes and Ferrari is rather that of the first of the redeemed. The mistake to be redeemed from is the car concept, understood as a mix of bodywork, ground clearance, operating windows, driveability and tire exploitation, a field where Red Bull immediately took a path without apparent contraindications, pushing the others to adapt. It could be argued that McLaren has made up for its mistakes best, having closed the gap to the Red Bull-Verstappen duo more than anyone else. The Woking team’s countermeasures, however, were too late, with podium finishes not starting to arrive until the ninth race, more than a third of the way through the season.
Thus Ferrari and Mercedes are competing for the symbolic title. Both have experimented and worked for during the year find an alternative concept more promising for the future. The task was not simple, as it required the immediate but alternative achievement of the same performances achieved with a philosophy developed for over a year. The Brackley and Maranello single-seaters have grown all round, but particular attention was paid to different aspects on each of the two.
W14 hunting for cargo
The priority for Mercedes has been to increase downforce in medium-high speed corners, the lack of which has been evident to the team since the W14’s debut in Bahrain. The Monte Carlo update package it laid the foundations for the technical revolution, introducing a new bodywork to redesign the flows directed to the rear. The changes to the front suspension also helped stabilize the aerodynamic platform during braking, cornering and acceleration, to which were added the continuous evolutions of the surface which continued until October.
All this allowed the Brackley team to lower the W14 compared to the excessive heights from the ground at which it was originally designed, helping it to recover aerodynamic load. It is no coincidence that the most convincing performances came on high-load circuits such as Barcelona, Budapest and Qatar, without neglecting the competitiveness expressed in Austin. On the other hand, Mercedes still faces a car that is at times unpredictable in its responses to changes in set-up, and is not always easy to get into the correct operating window. In Brackley, for example, we regret the points lost in Suzuka and San Paolo, on tracks where the W14 had the potential for much better performance.
The window of the SF-23
After the recovery of the aerodynamic load, the narrowness of the operating window became one of the first limiting factors at Mercedes. As far as Ferrari is concerned, however, the priorities during the season have been reversed compared to those of their opponents. In Maranello the primary objective was not to improve the load or maximum efficiency of the car, but to work above all on driveability, stability, consistency and predictability. The intent was to get closer to them repetitively and in all conditions excellent performance peaks expressed in qualification, qualities seen in the simulations in winter and which had led to internal belief that the SF-23 would be “an unprecedented car in terms of speed”.
Development saw the arrival of new bodywork starting with the Spanish Grand Prix, followed by repeated updates to the floor. Part of the progress can also be traced back to improvements in the preparation of the structure, with a progressive widening of the operating window which materializes in results. At the beginning of the year the Red Team fought sporadically for pole position, while in the last third of the season it won qualifying in Monza, Singapore, Austin, Mexico and Las Vegas, also thanks to Red Bull’s development. The SF-23 still retains its speed on the single lap, but manages to express it with more consistency.
It is emblematic how Ferrari recovered important points in the second half of the championship, when it moved away from European tracks and faced a wide variety of tracks, formats, weather conditions and tyres. Maranello’s path in this sense mirrored that of its direct rivals for second place. The SF-23 has grown above all in predictability and handlingwhile the increase in load and efficiency was not as drastic as that achieved by Mercedes, which on the other hand struggled to find the necessary consistency.
The last act
The decisive meeting takes place in Abu Dhabi, a track that looks like an excellent neutral challenge field which does not disadvantage or advantage either of the two factions. Ferrari will be able to make the most of the efficiency of the SF-23 on the two straights, the main one of which is 1.2 kilometers long. Mercedes, on the other hand, has the potential to perform well in the more driven sections, in particular in the faster corners with high lateral stress such as 1 and 9. Finally, both the Brackley and Maranello cars demonstrated their ability to handle the low-speed sections well. and in the traction phases, particularly abundant in the last sector. The result is a track whose qualifying lap speed is just under 230 km/h, falling within the seasonal average.
The starting choice is medium downforce, but in the past in Abu Dhabi the teams have often evaluated alternative wing configurations during the weekend, experimenting with more or less downforce. Rubber degradation is not particularly high, with the 2022 edition seeing single parking as the most widespread strategy. The expected scenario is identical for 2023, however Pirelli brings the softest compounds in the range: C3, C4 and C5. The prescriptions for static inflation pressures are 22 and 20 psi for the front and rear respectively, 1.0 and 0.5 psi lower than last season, a difference that will offer more mechanical grip to the cars.
It is realistic to believe that McLaren will be the third wheel in the fight between Ferrari and Mercedes. The English team is expected to perform far differently than those seen in Las Vegas, where the MCL60 once again suffered from poor efficiency in the minimum aerodynamic load configuration. It is a McLaren with all it takes to return to the top in Abu Dhabi, thanks also to a medium-high grip asphalt, compared to the poor grip found on the Nevada asphalt. Another challenge awaits the international team, called upon to divide their time between the fight for second and seventh place among the manufacturers. Williams still leads by seven points AlphaTauri, but from Austin onwards the Faenza team has shown that it can consistently get into the points with both cars. This is how the final, still uncertain positions are decided at Yas Marina, the only starting point in the final race of a season in which the best have already won.
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