Mexico has a behind-the-scenes role in the fight between Joe Biden and Donald Trump for the White House. The crisis on the southern border is one of the issues that most worries American voters. The Mexican Government has an opportunity to influence its ability to regulate migratory flows that arrive to its northern neighbor, immersed in an intense electoral campaign. A new variable is added to this context. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Mexican president-elect, can mark a period of continuity in the management of the common border or mark a new turn while waiting for the United States to elect a new leader.
US authorities detained 118,000 migrants in May after illegal crossings. This made the month one of the lowest in arrests in the 40 months that Biden has been in the White House. The figure contrasts with the historical record registered in December 2023, of 250,000 apprehensions (the year closed with 2.5 million encounters at the border, an unprecedented number). The May balance, in contrast, extends a downward trend so far this year. In Washington they attribute this decrease in flows to the collaboration of Mexico.
The Mexican Government’s figures confirm the work to contain migratory flows. In the first four months of 2024, Mexican authorities They have arrested 368,000 irregular migrants. The number is just under the total documented for the second half of 2023. In the final months of last year, authorities prosecuted some 70,000 foreigners every month. Since the start of this year, the figure is close to 100,000 migrants per month, according to the Ministry of the Interior.
The increase in pace represents a crossroads for Claudia Sheinbaum, who will take power on October 1. The president will then be able to decide whether she continues or modifies the border management strategy that the United States proposed and the López Obrador Administration adopted. This week, the Mexican president commented with resignation to the press that his country must accept the deportation of some non-Mexican citizens to his territory. “Why should they come here? We have no problem, we treat migrants very well, all of them, but why triangulate?” said the president in his morning conference. The country accepts nearly 30,000 deportations a month of people from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
“What the new Government should do is reach new agreements not based on massive returns and the loss of protections and not continue with this dynamic of cutting movements from south to north, which all they do is increase people’s suffering. and they don’t even stop migration,” says Stephanie Brewer, the Mexico director of Wola, a human rights organization for the Americas.
Although Biden came to power with the promise of reforming a broken system, the American president ended up adopting many of the measures established by Donald Trump in his radical anti-immigration vision. This week, the president unveiled a controversial executive order that closes the border when 2,500 migrant apprehensions are exceeded daily over the course of a week. He also imposed more obstacles on asylum seekers, one of the protection figures that have made the country a land of freedoms.
After the pandemic, the Democrat maintained a rule that Trump put into effect during the health emergency. This, called Title 42, allowed him to quickly deport foreigners who crossed irregularly. The Administration made it expire in May of last year, two years after Biden arrived at the White House. 62% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s management of the southern border, according to the Real Clear Politics survey average
After the end of the health rule, Washington increased the pace of deportation flights to relieve pressure on the border. There are six a day, on average. In May, for example, 151 flights were recorded that took off from the United States. It is the highest number recorded since August 2023, according to the organization Witness at the Border. The majority were destined for Guatemala (47). Another 29 went to Honduras. Mexico occupies third place on the list, with 18. Followed by Ecuador, with 17.
Defender Stephanie Brewer points out that the current model “does not benefit the Government of Mexico, or anyone.” “The population is growing in the north, due to returned people and stranded people who are waiting for their case to progress in the CBP One application. And also in the south, since Mexico moves detained people to Tabasco and other states. “Anyone can see that there are no conditions there to house these people,” says the Wola member.
Lopez Obrador assured this week that Biden “will go down in history as the president who does not build walls, but bridges.” The phrase is one of the few compliments received by his American counterpart in a week where criticism has rained down on him from the right and left for his decree. But it is also a literal reference. Both presidents discussed the umpteenth border control measure in a phone call. Biden reminded the Mexican president that his infrastructure plan will bring to the line between both countries three new border bridges and the construction of the Mesa de Otay II checkpoint, the busiest border in the world, between Tijuana and San Diego.
Some analysts have criticized the transactional dynamics that crisis management has taken on in recent months. “We must question the idea of negotiating for their benefit when human beings are used as currency,” they recall from Wola.
If Biden’s strategy is not successful, the dialogue between the two countries could worsen with Trump’s return to power. “Perhaps President Sheinbaum can negotiate with Biden, but Trump is more emphatic and it is very possible that with him the demands and imposition of tariffs will begin again,” says José Rodríguez-Sánchez, a researcher at the Baker Institute at Rice University, in Texas.
The academic believes that the first thing will be to know the president-elect’s opinion on the border crisis, an issue that she will have to deal with sooner or later. “Until now it is a question because she talked about very little in the campaign. Migration is not her priority, but she can be more astute and seek cooperation with the United States and development agencies at a time when everything indicates that she will be marginalized in her budget due to the growth of the debt,” adds Rodríguez-Sánchez. . Mexico can also lobby for more visas for temporary workers and seek to have the US Congress expand the ceilings on some permits. This all depends on who occupies the White House in January 2025.
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