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Over the past two months, Mexico has experienced one of the most extreme heat seasons ever recorded. At the end of May, in the municipality of Cunduacán, in the north of Tabasco, more than 150 howler monkeys died, apparently because they could not adapt to the high temperatures. At the national level, since March 2024, there have been reports at least 125 deaths from heat and 2,308 cases of heat stroke. In the Yucatan Peninsula, in southern Mexico, a maximum temperature of 51.9°C was reached on June 13, a record for this month in the country.
The situation was not very different in neighboring countries. There were monthly records for high temperatures in Guatemala and annual temperatures in Honduras. On the other hand, in the southwest of the United States, “more than 34 million people were in areas where authorities issued heat alerts and dozens suffered heat stroke during political rallies,” explains a recent analysis carried out by the organization. World Weather Attribution (WWA), which also warns that, due to climate change caused by human activities, these deadly heat waves are 35 times more likely to occur in North and Central America.
As explained by the leader of WWA, Dr. Friederike Otto, at a press conference. The mission of this group of scientists is to resolve as soon as possible a question that arises during an extreme climate event. What role did climate change play? And for the recent hot season that was experienced in this region, everything indicates that its role was extensive. If the climate crisis increased the probability of this occurring by 35 times during the day, for night temperatures it is greater, since the analysis shows a 200-fold increase in probability due to global warming.
To reach this conclusion, the team, which includes researchers from Mexico, Panama, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden, was based on the five days with the maximum temperatures, day and night, that the region experienced during May. and June, and they ran a model to find out how this behavior could be influenced by climate change.
In that five-day period, maximum temperatures were 1.4°C higher during the day and 1.6°C higher at night. “Although we must remember that this is the average for the North and Central American region, since in some areas of Mexico there were even more unusual heat records, in which climate change generated up to 2°C more heat,” he added. Izidine Pinto, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and one of the co-authors of the study, which, although it has not yet been peer-reviewed, used methodology that has been.
Based on the conclusions, it can be said that we are at the height of a crisis. By the year 2000, such extreme heat in the region was expected to occur during the months of May and June once every 60 years. That is, a person would only have to face this scenario once in their life. But, with the global warming that has been recorded, the estimate is that reaching these temperatures will be repeated once every fifteen years. This means that a person will experience these hot, deadly high temperatures five to six times in their life.
Central America is not prepared
The region’s extreme heat was fueled by several factors, scientists say. “The area that experienced intense heat is under the influence of a broad and persistent region of high pressure or anticyclonic circulation known as the ‘heat dome,’” the document states. Added to this is that Mexico, for example, was experiencing a drought that did not allow moisture in its soils and that generated what is known as a feedback loop, meaning that “the heat aggravates the drought, which in turn “The heat gets worse.” Also, both oceans, the Pacific and the Atlantic Caribbean, recorded surface temperatures above average, “increasing humidity and increasing discomfort that adds to the already excessive temperatures.”
But what made the situation fatal is that there are no policies, adaptation or preparation to deal with these temperatures. “In Mexico and Central America there is no governance in the face of heat waves or the ability to adapt the electrical systems, which were strongly affected,” said Karina Izquierdo, urban advisor for the Latin American and Caribbean region of the Climate Center of the Red Cross. Among the things that are pending to be done, for example, is to protect vulnerable populations such as newborns and those over 60 years of age – who tend to be more susceptible to heat -, and to have policies for mobile and rural workers when they face high temperatures. temperatures. “In the short term, school and work schedules could be adapted to avoid heat peaks,” she said.
The most disturbing thing, however, is seeing how the heat becomes deadly. Although the record in Mexico is 125 dead people, it is most likely that there are many more cases, not only in this country but throughout the region. Deaths due to heat are not reported as such or, even, there are no records that put a magnifying glass on them. And the heat, especially that exacerbated by climate change, leads to a health crisis. “Extreme heat increases rates of cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney disease and threatens the stability of our electrical grid, impacting communities and healthcare facilities,” said Dr. Catharina Giudice, MD, who was not involved in the analysis. of WWA, in a statement. “We have broken heat records year after year, and this concerns me deeply as an emergency physician.”
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