The former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains the clear favorite for the elections next October, with 42.2% of the intention to votecompared to 28% that the current ruler, Jair Bolsonaro, would obtain, according to a survey released this Monday.
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The survey was entrusted by the National Transport Confederation (CNT, employer) to the firm MDA and it coincides with all those published in recent months, which attribute Lula the support of more than 40% of the electorate and place Bolsonaro with less than 30%.
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In a highly polarized scenario between the leaders of progressivism and the extreme right, the survey of MDA It shows in third and fourth place of the preferences the Labor Party member Ciro Gomes (6.7%) and the former judge Sergio Moro (6.4%), followed by five possible candidates who do not exceed 2% of the voting intentions.
It also identified a low number of undecided voters (6%) and a similar percentage who intend to vote blank.
According MDA, Lula’s possible opponents add up to 45.3% support, compared to 42.2% for the progressive leader, which would take the lawsuit to a second roundnecessary if a candidate does not exceed 50% or all the votes obtained by all his opponents.
In the case of a second round, Lula would defeat any of the other candidates and, if he disputed it with Bolsonaro, he would prevail with 53.2% compared to 35.3% that the current president would obtain.
MDA also measured the image of the far-right government, whose management was considered “positive” by 25.9%, “regular” by 30.4% and “negative” by 42.7%.
This is also reflected in the levels of rejection of the two main candidates, which in the case of Bolsonaro are 55.4% and, when it comes to Lula, they are 40.5%.
According to MDA, the survey has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, a confidence level of 95.6% and was conducted in person between February 16 and 19, a period in which 2,002 voters from all the regions of the country.
Bolsonaro’s odds
Eurasia Group gives Brazilian leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a 70% chance of winning the presidential election later this year, although polls show President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity has improved somewhat in recent weeks.
The political consultancy presented on Monday its forecast model that examines factors such as approval ratings and the state of the Brazilian economy. While Bolsonaro’s popularity remains below 25%, Eurasia does not expect it to drop further as inflation has subsided and the labor market has improved.
“This is likely to be a closer race than current polls suggest,” the report said. In fact, recent opinion polls have shown that Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro is already shrinking to single digits.
A survey published on Monday by MDA projected that Lula would obtain 32.8% of the votes in the first electoral round, compared to 30.1% in December. Bolsonaro would obtain 24.4%, compared to 20.1% previously.
INTERNATIONAL WRITING
*With information from EFE and Bloomberg.
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