09/25/2024 – 16:38
São Paulo, 25 – Argentina’s grain harvest could reach 143.2 million tons in 2024/25, in the case of “normal” weather conditions, estimated the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR), in its first projection for the commercial year. The volume is 9.3% higher compared to the previous 2023/24 season, it highlighted. “However, even being conservative, if the soil moisture deficit continues, adjustments may occur”, it said in a note. With the estimated production potential, the BCR stated that the agricultural sector’s revenue could reach US$ 35.5 billion.
For soybeans, production could be between 52 million tons and 53 million tons, due to the increase in planting intentions, which should cover 17.7 million hectares, 8% more than in the previous harvest, said BCR.
Corn was estimated to reach 52 million tons, with pressure from fears of damage from the corn leafhopper, which reduced planting intentions by 21%, to 8 million hectares.
Regarding wheat, BCR projected that the planting area will grow 21% compared to the previous year, to 6.7 million hectares, with production of 20.4 million tons.
Regarding exports, BCR highlighted that projections indicate that shipments of grains, oils and derivatives are far from a record, but could still reach the third largest volume in history. The Argentine stock exchange estimated that 101.5 million tons could be exported in 2024/25, 15% above the previous year and the largest volume in four years, “although without breaking the barriers of the 2018/19 and 2020/21 campaigns”, it pointed out.
Harvest under unfavorable weather
The Rosario Grain Exchange also projected a scenario with adverse weather conditions for the 2024/25 harvest, with a lack of rain. Considering that the average yield of each crop would adjust to the average of the last five years, the estimated soybean production would be 6.6 million tons lower than that estimated under “normal” conditions and 8% below the previous year. Corn production would be 4.4 million tons lower in 2024/25, at 47.6 million tons, while wheat production would fall to 18.5 million tons, the exchange said.
In total, considering other crops, national grain production in 2024/25 would reach 128.8 million tons, 2% below the previous harvest and the second lowest volume in seven years, according to BCR.
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