At the same time, analysts predicted, in their comments to Sky News Arabia on the events, that France “will not remain silent” even after its withdrawal and will resort to its old “tools” to regain its influence.
Hours ago, the military junta, which has been in power in Niger since the coup of late last July, considered France’s announcement of the withdrawal of its forces, amounting to about 1,500 soldiers, a “new step towards sovereignty,” indicating that many Nigerians consider the presence of these forces to be a sign of their country’s dependence on Paris.
According to statements by French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday, French soldiers in Niger will leave “in the coming weeks and months,” with the complete withdrawal taking place “by the end of this year.” The French ambassador and diplomats will also return.
Macron attributed this in a television interview to the fact that “we do not want to be hostage to the coup plotters,” and that the coup plotters “do not want to fight terrorism.”
‘Political defeat’
In the words of Nigerian academic Al Hussein Mohamed Othman, Macron’s announcement of the withdrawal of French forces and the ambassador from Niger is a “defeat” for the Elysee Palace’s policy in dealing with the Niger crisis, and a “painful loss.”
At the same time, Othman expects “a greater loss” than the loss of the military presence, which is that the economic agreements with Paris will be canceled in the country rich in uranium, on which France’s power plants depend greatly.
In the opinion of the Nigerian analyst, Macron is trying to “save face” by showing that the withdrawal was a French initiative.
Paris announced the withdrawal of its forces, a month and a half after demonstrations in Niger demanding this, especially after its refusal to recognize the new rulers, and its enthusiasm for the option of military intervention to end the coup and return Bazoum to power, followed by the same military junta’s request from France to withdraw those forces that were brought in by previous authorities to participate in the anti-terrorism.
“Popular victory”
Researcher in African affairs, Jibreen Issa, agrees that economic agreements between France and Niger could be “dropped,” and the matter may even extend to canceling economic agreements between it and Burkina Faso and Mali, Niger’s allies, as well.
In turn, the withdrawal of French forces is attributed to Macron’s “compliment” with the demands of the Nigerian people and the military junta, considering it a “popular victory”, after the demonstrations surrounded the military base “101” at Niamey Airport and besieged the French ambassador’s residence in the past weeks.
As for the sharp Nigerian anger towards Paris, Issa attributed it to France’s use of “threats and intimidation” in dealing with the military junta, and its efforts, in cooperation with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), to launch military action against Niger to restore President Mohamed Bazoum to power by force, which is “what it failed to do.” “.
“You will not be silent”
But Issa does not expect France to remain silent after its withdrawal, saying that it “has its tools in its former colonies, and it will work through its many tools to restore its influence by obstructing political changes in these countries.”
These countries, in addition to Niger, are Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, and Gabon, which were occupied by Paris in the twentieth century, and maintained its influence there after independence through economic agreements and strong military and political cooperation.
Post withdrawal
The American researcher specializing in international affairs, Irina Zuckerman, also believes that the French withdrawal from Niger “is not Macron’s initiative,” but is the result of the military junta’s request for them to leave, while the French president rejected this request for weeks “in the hope that the new leaders will change their minds.”
In turn, it is likely that the French will soon be expelled from more countries on the continent. As a result of anger over Paris’s policy “which has contributed to the mismanagement of these countries by corrupting families and officials, instead of promoting the rule of law and vibrant institutions.”
At the same time, it does not expect a good future for the countries of Central and West Africa after the French withdrawal; In light of the presence of major threats such as internal rebellions, terrorist groups, the presence of the “corrupt” Russian Wagner group, and sectarian conflicts.
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