Since June 4, Ukrainian forces have been launching attacks on the Russian army in several directions, including southern Donetsk, Artyomovsk, Zaporozhye, the Crimean Peninsula, and Kherson, and sending NATO-trained brigades armed with modern tanks and cluster bomb munitions to the battlefields.
Kiev had explicitly announced that the goal of the counterattack was to restore the lands controlled by Moscow (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhya, Kherson), which has not been achieved so far.
Disappointed with the results of the counterattack
Military Watch, a newspaper specializing in military affairs, expects that Ukraine’s allies may change their approach to helping it militarily and financially after disappointment that the counterattack did not achieve its goals.
The newspaper bases this on the fact that the Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses without tangible results.
For its part, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) expected that Moscow would launch fierce counterattacks in the coming period.
But the institute, on the other hand, was optimistic about the continued resistance of the Ukrainian forces, saying that the Kiev counterattack would continue in the winter, and that these forces would work to deepen their advance in Zaporizhya by attacking the village of Novoprokoyevka, located on the front line.
The American website indicated that the Ukrainians had penetrated some field fortifications west of the village of Verbov in Zaporizhya, although they were not able to penetrate all of the Russian defensive sites in the region.
It is also expected that the simultaneous counterattacks launched by Ukraine in Bakhmut and the south will hinder Russia’s efforts, as it redeploys its new reserves to repel the Ukrainian attack and prevent it from achieving further progress.
Ukrainian inability to develop a counterattack
In the estimation of Russian military expert, Vladimir Igor, Ukraine is “unable to develop a counterattack,” for the following reasons:
• Air superiority and modern reconnaissance means that enabled the Russian army to monitor the movements of Ukrainian forces.
• The terrain of southern Ukraine is devoid of sites that facilitate camouflage and hiding operations for its forces, in addition to the small number of Ukrainian forces, which are now suffering from a severe shortage of ammunition, which has turned their counterattack into a suicidal adventure.
• Ukraine’s leaders reject estimates by some Western allies that the counterattack is less than expected.
• Ukrainian leaders may view the negative assessments as an attempt by partners to roll back military support that is draining the West’s stockpiles and defense budgets.
• Russia’s ability to adapt to new military tactics, and the gap between Ukrainian battle plans and military supplies.
• American Abrams tanks and other Western weapons will not affect the results of the Russian special military operation.
Control the atmosphere
Russian military expert Sergei Leonkov agrees that “it is still too early for Ukraine to develop its counterattack,” and this makes it “also difficult to resolve the war soon.”
Leonkov explained in an interview with Sky News Arabia that he based his opinion on the following indicators:
• Kiev will still be able to exhaust the Russian side without creating a breakthrough that would force Moscow to retreat.
• Heavy losses of Ukrainian forces, and the depletion of Western equipment stocks, force Kiev’s allies to reconsider their policies.
• The Russian Air Force completely controls the skies over Ukraine, while the Ukrainian army does not have air assets.
• Russian air defense prevents Ukraine from striking ground forces. Russia’s control of the skies is Ukraine’s main problem.
• Giving Ukraine Western weapons such as Atakhams and Himars missiles and Abrams tanks is a waste of money and time, and will not change the equation on the ground.
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