The US anticipates that the war will begin this week with “strong missile attacks and bombing” although Kiev does not perceive changes in the Russians
The United States explained this Sunday what the war in Ukraine will be like. It will start possibly “any time” this week. This Monday and Tuesday are two days marked in red on the White House calendar. But his gaze is focused above all on Wednesday. It will be a “very rapid military action” and will most likely “start with heavy missile strikes and shelling”, followed by “ground troop movements”.
This was described by the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, in statements to CNN as the culmination of a series of pessimistic messages launched from the Joe Biden Administration based on the conversation that the president had with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin on Saturday. The call gave “no reason for optimism.” “It certainly didn’t show that things were moving in the right direction,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said. “There are no signs that Putin intends to ease tensions. A major military action could take place at any time », he added, despite the fact that both leaders called for a new contact in March.
Whether they are based on tangible intelligence data, as the White House affirms, or on self-serving assumptions, the fact is that Washington’s messages once again had the same effect as when it urged its diplomats and compatriots to leave Ukraine, achieving that in line followed dozens of countries have done the same. Mexico joined the list this Sunday, Australia decreed the suspension of activity at its embassy and Israel reiterated to its fellow citizens settled in the former Soviet republic that they leave the country “before it is no longer possible.” The US could also have initiated the transfer of its legation in the capital to a city closer to Poland.
The uncertainty about the hour H has also reached the sky. SkyUp, a local low-cost airline, reported that international insurers have suspended coverage on flights that cross Ukrainian territory from Monday to Wednesday. In response, and given the rumors that pointed to a possible closure of the airspace, the Kiev Government has declared that “its skies remain open” and will provide “additional guarantees” to the companies for their services.
Twenty-nine international airlines operate a total of 34 routes with Ukraine. Despite everything, Kiev has not been able to prevent some leasing companies from requiring airlines to transfer their planes to airports in the European Union. Lufthansa meditates if it should suspend its flights and KLM has canceled them. In its case, the Dutch firm is very cautious and has not flown over eastern Ukraine since its MH17 commercial plane was mistakenly shot down by a Russian missile in 2014, killing 298 people.
continuous maneuvers
The US prediction caught Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dimitro Kuleba by surprise, who lowered the alarm by replying that he had no record of “drastic changes” on the border with Russia that would point to an immediate invasion, nor in the “occupied territories”. » –Donetsk and Luhansk–. The repeated warnings from Washington about the imminence of a war have been a constant point of friction between Kiev and the Biden Administration, and adviser Jake Sullivan referred to this friction when stating that if the United States shares its analysis, it does so to “prevent Russia from take Ukraine and the world by surprise.
By the way, after drawing the steps of the war, Sullivan acknowledged this Sunday that he does not know if the president, Vladimir Putin, will opt for this path through diplomatic channels. “I’m not in his head,” he argued. Hours after this statement, Biden and the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelensky, had a telephone conversation where they agreed to insist on “diplomacy and deterrence” with Moscow.
The United States justifies the imminence of an invasion in that “for ten days we have seen an acceleration of the reinforcement of Russian troops and their positioning closer to the border, so they could launch military action very quickly.” Moscow accumulates more than 120,000 soldiers in its territory near Donbass and 20,000 in its joint maneuvers with Belarus, although the Kremlin denies any intention to occupy Ukraine. A problem, and not trivial, is that between one and other actors in the crisis jump the spark. The Russian and US navies already suffered episodic friction on Saturday in the Black Sea, where the former carries out naval maneuvers. As a precaution, Kiev asked the airlines this Sunday to divert their flights so as not to cross this area while the tactical exercises last.
The reactions in the rest of the countries are consistent with an apparent hardening of the conflict. British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said on Sunday that “it may be that (Putin) turns off the tanks and we all go home, but there is a smell of Munich in the air for some in the West.” He was alluding to the 1938 agreement that allowed Nazi Germany to obtain some Czechoslovakian territory as a way to unsuccessfully avoid war in Europe.
On the eve of his Prime Minister Olaf Scholz traveling to Ukraine on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier reminded Putin on Sunday that Russia has a “responsibility” to avoid war.
Albares assures that dialogue cannot be held “under military pressure”
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation, José Manuel Albares, warned this Sunday that the EU will not be able to dialogue with Russia on the Ukrainian crisis “under military pressure”, for which Moscow must give guarantees of a de-escalation.
“If Russia has doubts or wants to raise any issue about NATO or the EU, we are open to talk and build confidence, but it is necessary to de-escalate the tension. You cannot dialogue under military pressure », she said in an interview for ‘Europa Sur’.
The minister added that we must not forget “what is at stake” in this conflict, such as “international legality itself” or respect for “the territorial integrity of States.”
Topics
Vladimir Putin, KLM, Lufthansa, NATO, European Union (EU), Belarus, United States, Kiev, Russia, Ukraine, Washington, Crisis in Ukraine
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