Friedrich Merz could start his candidacy for chancellor with a defeat. A risky maneuver could prove to be his downfall.
Friedrich Merz, the Union’s newly elected candidate for chancellor, could begin his candidacy with a defeat if there is no change of government in Brandenburg. This scenario is the result of a risky move in which Markus Söder is also involved.
The upcoming state election in Brandenburg is the last before the start of the intensive election campaign in Berlin. The outcome of this election will not only have an impact on federal politics, but also on the fate of the candidates for chancellor.
In the run-up to the Brandenburg election, an exciting race is emerging between the SPD and AfD Current polls put the AfD at 28 percent, just ahead of the SPD, which is only one percentage point behind. The future government in Potsdam is therefore still uncertain. There are several possibilities: A coalition with the AfD is ruled out by the other parties. Possible alliances could be made up of the SPD, CDU and the Wagenknecht-Party BSW with its own majority or a grand coalition of CDU and SPD.
For Friedrich Merz, the Brandenburg election could mean a severe personal defeat
The incumbent Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke has already indicated that he would resign if the AfD won the election. Nevertheless, the SPD will probably lead the new government, with the CDU being a junior partner at best. For Friedrich Merz, the Brandenburg election could mean a serious personal defeat, especially if Woidke remains Prime Minister with the SPD as the strongest force. “Friedrich Merz will probably start off as a candidate for chancellor with a defeat because he can be held jointly liable if the hoped-for change of government in Brandenburg does not take place,” said political consultant Johannes Hillje in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA.
Merz took a strategic risk by announcing his candidacy for chancellor shortly before the Brandenburg election, rather than afterward. “I don’t understand why Merz announced his decision before the election,” says Hillje. The expert suspects that Markus Söder’s ambitions may have accelerated this step. “Perhaps Markus Söder’s statements of ambition accelerated it.”
“I can imagine that Markus Söder wanted to drive up the price with his comments”
Söder, the chairman of the CSU, had indicated a few weeks ago that he would be available to run for chancellor if he were asked. At the joint press conference between Merz and Söder, it was then surprisingly announced that the decision for Merz had already been made and agreed upon months ago. Hillje, however, doubts this statement: “I do not believe that this decision had been prepared for weeks or months.”
It is possible that Söder’s sudden ambitions prompted Merz to act quickly and calm Söder down. “I can imagine that Markus Söder wanted to drive up the price with his comments,” said Hillje. “He wants something from Merz that we don’t yet know what it is. That could be a ministerial post. Or the assurance that there will be no black-green coalition, but a grand coalition.” This would explain why Söder recently so clearly and prominently described a black-green coalition as a no-go.
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