Datafolha survey also shows that Tabata Amaral has 11% of the electorate considered committed
Datafolha research released this Saturday (Aug 24, 2024) indicates that federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (Psol) (40%) has the most committed voters in the race for Mayor of São Paulo.
Next comes the electorate of coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB) (23%) and the federal deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB) (11%). The current mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), has 10%.
The research questioned, with the options “committed”, “inclined” or “distant”the degree of affinity of voters with the candidates they intend to vote for.
In the overall sample, 18% of voters were classified as committed, 55% as inclined, and 28% as distant.
The survey was conducted by Datafolha from August 20 to 21, 2024. 1,204 voters were interviewed in São Paulo. The confidence interval is 95%. The margin of error is approximately 3 pp (percentage points). The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number SP-08344/2024. It cost R$ 95,438.14. The amount was paid by Grupo Globo (contractor) and S.Paulo Newspaper.
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VOTING INTENTIONS
The latest survey on voting intentions by Datafolha, released on Thursday (22 August), showed a technical draw between Boulos (23%)Marçal (21%) and Nunes (19%). The 1st round of municipal elections will be held on October 6, 2024.
The survey was conducted by Datafolha from August 20 to 21, 2024. 1,204 voters were interviewed in São Paulo. The confidence interval is 95%. The margin of error is approximately 3 pp (percentage points). The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number SP-08344/2024. It cost R$ 95,438.14. The amount was paid by Grupo Globo (contractor) and S.Paulo Newspaper.
Federal Deputy Kim Kataguiri (União Brasil) announced on August 1st, he withdrew his candidacy for Mayor of São Paulo.
Here are the numbers from the stimulated scenario (when names are given), compared to the latest Datafolha survey, from August 12:
- Guilherme Boulos: 23% (was 22%);
- Pablo Marcal: 21% (was 14%);
- Ricardo Nunes: 19% (was 23%);
- Date: 10% (was 14%);
- Tabata Amaral: 8% (was 7%);
- Marina Helena: 4% (it was 4%);
- John Pepper: 1% (was 2%);
- Bebeto Haddad: 1% (was not a candidate in the previous survey);
- Ricardo Senese: 0% (were 0%);
- Altino Pleasures: 0% (was 1%);
- Blank/null: 8% (was 11%);
- Don’t know: 4% (was 3%).
MARÇAL GROWTH
The 7 percentage point increase in relation to the last Datafolha survey can be explained by Pablo Marçal’s performance in the debates. Since August 12, he has participated in the Band, State and Look. On occasion, he launched an offensive against his opponents, especially Nunes and Boulos.
The candidate has also used social media to spread his proposals. In the Lookrefused to answer questions and encouraged viewers to follow his Instagram profile to check out the answers.
RESEARCH AGGREGATOR
THE Poder360 offers its readers, through Poder Monitor, the Research Aggregator oldest and most complete survey on the internet in Brazil. It brings together thousands of voting intention surveys from all companies since the year 2000. In election years, only studies that are registered with the Electoral Court and have a complete known methodology are published. Do you have any research to share? Send the full survey by email to Poder360: [email protected].
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