The Democratic establishment crowned Joe Biden in the 2020 primary cycle, as the party quickly consolidated around him in the frenzied week after the South Carolina primary. Now, that establishment—or at least a part of it—is trying to dethrone him after the disaster in the debate with Donald Trump.
Entering the debate, Biden had a clear goal: to show enough vigor to convince undecided voters and restless Democrats that he was still fit for office, provoke Trump to talk about the 2020 election, and highlight some policy points to draw a contrast. between him and his predecessor. Such a performance might not have fundamentally changed the trajectory of the campaign, but it would have helped to silence simmering dissatisfaction among Democrats.
Instead, the president stumbled through his responses, which were often confused and hesitant. He even declared at one point — after standing frozen for several seconds — that “we finally defeated Medicare,” [programa de seguro de saúde do governo dos Estados Unidos] giving ground to a Trump attack. Perhaps because he had a cold, his voice was thin and hoarse, as if he had swallowed a ball of steel wool. The debate rule that silences interruptions probably helped Trump here; it put the rambling nature of Biden’s responses on full display, without distraction from Trump’s own interventions, so prominent in their 2020 debates.
Calls for Biden to drop out soon followed. The newspaper columnist The New York Times Tom Friedman, a personal friend of the president, said he cried while watching the debate and declared that Biden “has no business running for reelection.” Polling guru Nate Silver wrote a column with a similar plea. On MSNBC, Claire McCaskill, a former Democratic senator from Missouri, said that even many elected Democrats “feel like we’re facing a crisis.”
On policy, the debate offered some insight into how both candidates frame their respective coalitions. Trump tried to position himself as the defender of federal benefits, claiming that Biden’s immigration policies threatened Social Security and Medicare. This is a far cry from the “Ponzi scheme” claims that some Republicans would use to attack Social Security during the Tea Party years. At the same time, Trump advocated tax cuts and deregulation. The alleged split between Ronald Reagan and Trump on economic policy may be a bit overstated.
As expected, Biden launched attacks on Trump’s character and answered “yes” to moderator Jake Tapper’s question about whether everyone who voted for Trump was “voting against American democracy.” Emergency rhetoric has been a long-term theme of Biden’s presidency, shaping his strategy in the midterm elections and his re-election bid. Perhaps trying to appeal to the progressive base, Biden called for sweeping action to combat “climate change,” which he characterized as an existential threat.
The exchanges on international affairs were also revealing. Trump repeatedly mentioned the administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, a turning point in Biden’s poll numbers. The former president pointed to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Hamas’s attack on Israel as signs that international actors do not fear Biden and that global instability has increased during his tenure. Biden highlighted his alliance-building. In defending his support for Israel, he distanced himself from progressive critics of that country, who suffered a resounding defeat earlier this week when “Squad” member Jamaal Bowman lost his primary. [o deputado por Nova York foi derrota em seu distrito graças à intensa mobilização do Comitê de Assuntos Públicos Americano-Israelense (AIPAC, na sigla em inglês)].
Concerns about Biden’s age and his faltering performance overshadow these political questions, at least for now. But some structural factors that have transformed American politics could affect how this issue plays out. Both Biden and Trump have benefited from the politics of negative partisanship. The current frenzy to replace Biden can be compared to the firestorm triggered by the leak of the Access Hollywood video in October 2016. Back then, Trump resisted a concerted effort to oust him—and went on to win the White House.
Biden may be inclined to make a similar bet today. His standing within the Democratic Party is much stronger than Trump’s was within the Republican Party in 2016. Trump was an insurgent presidential candidate. Biden is the incumbent who swept the primaries. Regardless of what voters think of his debate performance, Biden may believe he can still win because the alternative is Trump. Biden’s team will keep a close eye on the polls. A complete collapse in his numbers could prompt his campaign to reevaluate. If support doesn’t collapse — and in today’s highly polarized electorate, it may not — then the president may well decide to ride out the storm.
Biden could also avoid a palace coup from senior aides begging him to step aside. His lack of vigor likely expanded the spheres of influence for several Cabinet secretaries and White House staffers. Everyone now has an added incentive to keep him as president and reinforce the bubble of optimism in the West Wing.
Another strategic factor: Biden was anointed in 2020 because his nomination was the clearest path to defeating Trump. This calculation may still apply. Biden certainly lacks the polling advantage he had in 2020, and may be slightly behind Trump. But the election remains close enough that Democrats may conclude that keeping the president is their best bet.
If Biden steps aside, of course, the Democrats’ complications explode. Although scarce, public polls on a showdown between Kamala Harris and Trump indicate that the vice president could do worse than Biden. Some potential Democratic candidates prevailed in key states (Gov. Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper), but there is no guarantee they could replace Harris or win the nomination. A new candidate could help Democrats move away from the dissatisfactions that have soured Americans about the Biden administration, but the potential difficulties of such a change could prove too challenging.
Ultimately, the decision will not be up to operators at the Democratic National Committee headquarters. Joe Biden still holds all the cards. He has an overwhelming number of pledged delegates. According to the rules of the Democratic National Convention, these delegates “shall in good conscience reflect the feelings of those who elected them.” These delegates are essentially tied to Biden for as long as he is running. No one can force you to stay away.
When the debate ended, “Star Wars” actor Mark Hamill, a cultural ally of the president, ignored the issue and issued a torrent of attacks on “the previous guy.” So the president can still count on Luke Skywalker’s support. If he prevails, however, it will not be the Force that saves him, but the Dark Side: a revulsion at the alternative.
©2024 City Journal. Published with permission. Original in English: Can Anyone Force Biden to Step Aside?
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