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What does the future hold for French President Emmanuel Macron? The sudden French election leaves many questions unanswered. Will France soon be governed by the Rassemblement National?
Paris – The European elections were a bombshell for French politics. The “National Rally“ (RN), the right-wing populists under Marine Le Pen, swept the board: with 31.37 percent of the vote, they were the clear winners and received almost twice as many votes as Macron’s alliance “Renaissance“. President Emmanuel Macron made short work of it and dropped the bombshell. His announcement surprised everyone – even hardened French politicians – when he summarily dissolved the French National Assembly, the parliament, and announced new elections.
Out of respect for France, Macron decided to exercise Article 12 of the French Constitution, the 46-year-old said after the European elections-defeat. This intervention in the legislative power of the French state is so drastic that the article is also known by the nickname “atom bomb”. From Sunday (June 30th) the time has come. In two rounds, once on June 30th and once on July 7th, the French will elect a new parliament.
How long has Emmanuel Macron been president?
Emmanuel Macron has been President of the French Republic since May 2017. With his re-election on April 24, 2022, he was able to win 58.55 percent of the vote against his rival Marine Le Pen The head of state is elected in France every five years. This means that Macron would remain in office even after the elections and until 2027. In France, the president has a lot of power and room for maneuver, but in our neighboring country the president also has to come to terms with parliament.
And in the new elections with a potential victory of the right-wing populists This will probably prove difficult. Although an absolute majority for the RN is unlikely according to current polls, Macron will probably have to come to terms with strengthened rights in parliament.
Who will be the new Prime Minister after the new elections in France?
According to the French constitution, the president has free leeway in appointing the prime minister. There is, however, a catch: Parliament can withdraw its confidence in the prime minister and remove him from office. If the RN actually wins a majority of votes in parliament, Macron would probably have to nominate party leader Jordan Bardella as the new prime minister.
That would be an absolute first. The 28-year-old head of the RN has no government experience and no professional experience outside the RN. However, Bardella had previously announced that the RN would not govern without an absolute majority in parliament. “I will neither be powerless nor will I stand by the President of the Republic,” Bardella told The Parisian. “To govern, I need an absolute majority.”
![French election 2024: RN leader Jordan Bardella with mentor Marine Le Pen (photo from 2022)](https://www.merkur.de/assets/images/34/925/34925487-frankreich-wahl-2024-rn-chef-jordan-bardella-mit-mentorin-marine-le-pen-aufnahme-von-2022-RrBG.jpg)
However, if the RN wins an absolute majority in parliament and Bardella takes office as prime minister, this would mark the fourth so-called “cohabitation” in French history.
What is “cohabitation” and what would it mean for the French government?
Actually, “cohabitation” is a thing of the past: since the presidential mandate in France was shortened from seven to five years, the presidential and parliamentary elections always fall in the same year. Therefore, the president normally represents parliament and can choose the prime minister from his own ranks. Only an early dissolution of the National Assembly or an early presidential election will bring “cohabitation” back into play.
“Cohabitation” is a peculiarity of French politics. It occurs when the president and prime minister come from different political camps – as is the case with Macron and Bardella. In the “cohabitation” they would have to come to terms and make compromises. And that could be uncomfortable for both Macron and Bardella.
For Macron, this means that he will no longer be able to implement his policies so easily and will have to bow to government policy. The French government would have more powers in a “cohabitation”. The functions of the president would be transferred to the prime minister. In principle, the prime minister holds the reins in domestic policy and can implement his ideas. In a “cohabitation”, the president would be responsible primarily for foreign policy and defense.
What happens if the parliament is divided after the elections in France?
In short, nobody knows for sure. If no party wins an absolute majority in the upcoming elections and Bardella declines the office of prime minister as announced, Macron could try to put someone else up as head of government in an “anti-RN” alliance. It is unclear, however, whether this person would survive a vote of no confidence from the RN. An alliance of the mainstream parties, for example, would be one possibility.
The election will show what the situation in parliament will look like. Meanwhile, a new movement quickly formed in the left-wing camp of the French parties, the “Nouveau Front populaire” – the “New Popular Front”. An alliance of five parties ranging from left to communist in their political orientation. They too could possibly prevent the RN from gaining an absolute majority and provide the Prime Minister.
What is already certain before the elections in France?
Macron certainly does not want to resign. The president has already ruled that out. Whatever the outcome of the new elections, Macron wants to remain president until his term expires. And the RN cannot force him to resign, even if the right-wing populists actually win an absolute majority in July. However, many questions remain unanswered and will only be answered after the election. One thing is certain: the election can already be described as historic. (sure)
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