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Putin’s ties to Iran and the Houthi rebels have protected Russian merchant ships in the Red Sea. That seems to be over.
Sanaa – Russia is Ukraine War on Iranian-made drones and has been able to rely strategically on Iran and its allies since the beginning of its invasion. Wladimir Putin maintains close contacts with Tehran, and so the Iran-backed Houthi rebels spare Russian merchant ships in the Red Sea from their attacks. But Moscow’s ability to stop Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on ships carrying Russian cargo is probably limited despite the agreements with Iran.
Since November, the Houthi rebels have been fighting in response to Israel’s war in Gaza and in solidarity with the “Palestinian brothers in Gaza and the West Bank.” The Houthi rebels say they are targeting commercial vessels with connections to Israel, although many vessels are reportedly Newsweek have no clear connections to the country. In response, many shipping companies diverted ships from the Suez Canal to the longer route around Africa, thus disrupting world trade.
Despite promises, Houthi rebels attack ships carrying Russian and Chinese cargo
Ambrey, a British maritime security company, has now stated that the Houthi’s actions are increasingly affecting non-Western ships and that Russia can no longer rely on security in the Red Sea. Russian ships, including tankers carrying Russian oil and container ships heading for Russian ports, are largely able to sail through the region unscathed. In January, Houthi fighters mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil southeast of the Yemeni port city of Aden. In March, the Chinese tanker Huang Pu carrying Russian oil was attacked.
Ambrey’s regional analyst for the Middle East and Indian Ocean, Daniel Müller, believes that these attacks have damaged the credibility of the Houthis. They had previously assured that they were not attacking Russian and Chinese freighters. He said the Houthis had targeted Chinese-owned ships because they suspected links to trade with Israel, Britain, the US or Israel. “Ships with Russian cargo or ships destined for Iran were also attacked,” he told Newsweek. “Israeli, British or US connections could be stronger than connections with China or Russia.”
“Political pressure from Russia or China is limited,” says maritime security expert
Müller also said: “The political pressure from Russia or China to end the Houthi attacks on shipping or to ensure the security of Chinese and Russian interests appears to be limited.” The limited effectiveness of the Houthi guarantee for Russian and Chinese shipping makes an appropriate risk assessment, including a thorough verification of the ship’s affiliation, increasingly important. “The activities indicate that China has not succeeded in persuading Iran or the Houthi to cease or reduce operations.”
Houthi attacks have already had a major impact on maritime trade in the region. Container shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, fell by 66 percent between December 2023 and February 2024. More and more companies are switching to the route around the Cape of Good Hope.
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